Betting on the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl: 2012 Odds
Carrie Stroup here with your betting on the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl for 2012. The latest odds and previews appear below. Be sure to claim your FREE $250 when you open an online betting account here (restrictions do apply).
WISCONSIN BADGERS (11-2) vs. OREGON DUCKS (11-2)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Oregon -4.5 & 73
Opening Line & Total: Ducks -6 & 72
Two of the nation’s top-four scoring offenses, led by top-four running backs, are on display in what should be quite an entertaining Rose Bowl Monday in Pasadena.
Both of these teams have top-notch offenses and excellent ball carriers with Montee Ball for Wisconsin and LaMichael James for Oregon. But it’s the Badgers that sport the far superior defense, allowing just 293 total YPG, good for eighth in the nation. Oregon surrenders 381 YPG, which puts them 60th in the country in yards allowed. The Badgers give up just 155 passing YPG (3rd in FBS) and have picked off 15 passes. There is also a discrepancy in offensive turnovers as Wisconsin has turned the ball over just eight times all season while Oregon has given it away 18 times. With a game expected to finish with 75 to 80 total points, one turnover could be the difference.
Oregon’s LaMichael James leads the nation with 150 rushing YPG, but Wisconsin’s Montee Ball is the country’s biggest TD maker by a wide margin (38 TD). James will look to redeem himself after gaining a paltry 49 yards on 13 carries (3.8 YPC) in last year’s FBS Championship Game loss to Auburn. Wisconsin could also have the edge with familiarity considering it just played in the Rose Bowl a year ago, losing 21-19 to TCU after a failed two-point conversion with two minutes to play. Ball rushed for 132 yards on just 22 carries (6.0 YPC) in the loss to the Horned Frogs who entered that game with the nation’s No. 1 defense in both scoring (11.4 PPG) and yardage (215 YPG). Ball should have an easier time against Oregon, whose 138 rushing YPG allowed are more indicative of the Ducks many blowouts this year, which forced their opponents to throw the football in an effort to catch up.
Not to be overlooked in this game are two smart and talented signal callers. Badgers QB Russell Wilson ranks second in FBS passing efficiency (31 TD, 3 INT) and Ducks QB Darron Thomas is not far behind at 14th (30 TD, 6 INT). Although Oregon has had trouble defending the pass (85th in nation, 244 YPG), the school is still third in the nation with 43 sacks. That’s the polar opposite of Wisconsin, which allows just 155 passing YPG, but has generated a much lesser pass rush with 23 sacks. Granted, the Pac-12 is much more of a pass-happy league than the Big Ten, but Oregon never could replace the production that CB Cliff Harris gave them before he was dismissed from the team for off-field troubles.
STANFORD CARDINAL (11-1) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (11-1)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Oklahoma State -4 & 74.5
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -3.5 & 74
Two of the nation’s best quarterbacks close out their collegiate careers as Andrew Luck’s Stanford team faces Oklahoma State and Brandon Weeden in Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl.
These teams are very similar, and not just because they are ranked third and fourth in the BCS Standings. Both have excellent quarterbacks and potent ground games to complement these elite passers. Stanford is 10-2 ATS and Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS this season. But OSU plays in a much better conference, and thus has played superior competition all year. Other than the turnover-fueled loss at ISU, the Cowboys have just crushed their opponents, only winning one close game (vs. Kansas State, now ranked No. 8 in the country). The Cardinal haven’t been great in three straight games versus quality opponents and will likely be without starting WR Chris Owusu (concussion).
Luck has thrown 35 TD and 9 INT this year, and has tossed 2+ TD for 15 straight games dating back to last year. This includes his remarkable performance in last year’s Orange Bowl, when he completed 18-of-23 passes for 287 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT in a 40-12 blowout win over Virginia Tech. But the Cardinal can also run the football (208 YPG, 20th in nation), with Stepfan Taylor leading the way. Taylor (96 rush YPG, 10 total TD) has rushed for at least 95 yards in eight of his past 10 games, but hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in four straight contests. Both Luck and Taylor expect to gain big yardage against a Cowboys defense allowing 446 total YPG (106th in nation), including 266 passing YPG (103rd in FBS) and 180 rushing YPG (85th in nation).
Weeden has completed 73% of his passes this year for 361 YPG, 34 TD and 12 INT. This will also be Cowboys WR Justin Blackmon’s last collegiate game. He is third in FBS in catches (9.4 per game) and seventh in receiving yards (111 YPG). Stanford has a great front seven that ranks sixth among FBS schools in sacks (3.2 per game), but the Cardinal will be hard pressed to create turnovers since OSU has a ridiculous +20 turnover margin. They will also have trouble stopping the Cowboys improved ground game that rushed for 278 yards against Oklahoma. Joseph Randle had 151 of those yards on just 19 carries (7.9 YPC), while Jeremy Smith added 119 on a mere 10 attempts. Both players scored two touchdowns in the 44-10 rout, and will both will be needed to bust through a stingy Stanford run defense that ranks fifth in the nation (90 YPG).
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
