Michigan vs. Virginia Tech Line at +3 Wolverines for 2012 Sugar Bowl
The Michigan vs. Virginia Tech line was coming in at +3 Wolverines for Tuesday’s 2012 Sugar Bowl game. Approximately 65 percent of those betting the spread on this game were backing Michigan.
A few weeks back, Blake Frazier of BetOnline.com suggested the Hokies should be able to win this game but by a very close margin. Obviously, with a -2.5 to -3 point spread, they didn’t have much to work with.
Frazier explains the rationale behind his backing of Virginia Tech: “This is the kind of game in which a team smarting from not only a blowout loss, but a perceived lack of respect, rallies around the flag to prove a point. Virginia Tech is naturally and rightly being dismissed heading into this game because it got crushed by Clemson, 38-10, in this past Saturday’s ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. Virginia Tech was supposed to have had the answers for Clemson after losing the first matchup by a lopsided 23-3 score, but after losing a second time to the Tigers in even more emphatic fashion, it’s clear that this bunch of Hokies is just not as good as previous versions. Injuries to the defense have limited the ability of coordinator Bud Foster to put his best 11 players on the field, but the larger point remains that Virginia Tech just hasn’t been as physically imposing in the trenches.
“This might all seem like a reason to pick Michigan in this game, but the extent to which Virginia Tech has been written off is something to watch for. This is like the NCAA Tournament team who makes it into the Big Dance as a No. 12 seed and gets criticized. When the tournament arrives, this kind of team plays its best game and knocks off the No. 5 seed in the first round.”
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Some important stats you need to know before betting on this game.
Virginia Tech had won 7 of their last games before getting upset by Clemson the final week.
V Tech scored over 30 points in five of its last eight games. Michigan State has scored OVER 30 points in seven of their last ten games. The OVER/UNDER here is 50.5, so you might want to just do the math. The OVER 50.5 definitely looks appealing.
The Over is 5-0 in Wolverines last 5 bowl games as a favorite.
The Over is 5-0 in Wolverines last 5 neutral site games.
The Over is 10-1 in Wolverines last 11 Bowl games.
The Over is 10-1 in Wolverines last 11 bowl games.
The Over is 6-2 in Wolverines last 8 games on turf.
The Over is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Gambling911.com was not seeing significant enough UNDER trends for either team, though we should point out that Virginia Tech tended to be more of an UNDER school where the trends were concerned. Both teams had records that leaned towards the UNDER as well: Michigan State 5-7, Virginia Tech 4-8.
The Wolverines are 7-20 Against The Spread in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
The Wolverines are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
The Hokies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
The Hokies are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.
The Hokies are 18-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Hokies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
