Ravens vs. Patriots: Preview for Gamblers
The Ravens vs. Patriots line was hovering around Patriots -3 ½ at press time at Sportsbook.com after opening the week at -4.
The second AFC Wildcard tilt is also a rematch, but not of Week 17, rather from October 4th, when the Patriots survived the Ravens in a 27-21 win at home. This week's postseason tilt is also at Gillette Stadium, and strangely, odds makers at Sportsbook.com have moved the opening line from -4 to -3 on New England over the course of this week, despite the fact that 66% of bettors were siding with the Patriots, according to the BETTING TRENDS page. One of the key issues concerning gamblers in this game is the injury situation facing the Ravens vs. Patriots meeting, more specifically Wes Welker on the New England side.
For New England, the earlier win over the Ravens was one of eight victories in Foxboro in ‘09, as they were perfect while going 5-3 ATS, outscoring foes by an average margin of 31.2-12.9. The Patriots own a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS edge in this head-to-head, including 3-0 SU & ATS at home where they've outscored the Ravens 71-7. They opened as 4-point favorites for Sunday's game. Baltimore is 3-5 on the road, and under John Harbaugh, just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS as a road dog of more than a field goal. New England has played 17 playoff games in the Bill Belichick era, going 14-3 SU & 8-8 ATS. Baltimore in on a 7-4 SU & ATS run in the postseason.
San Diego Chargers beware: the Patriots are back in the postseason after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years and would be headed your way with a win over Baltimore on Sunday.
The Ravens, a wild-card team for a second straight year and the AFC runners-up last season, made the playoffs with a win in Oakland and return to the scene of a hard-fought 27-21 loss in Week 4. Willis McGahee powered them over the Raiders, rushing for a career-high 167 yards and three scores.
New England, which missed the playoffs a year ago despite winning 11 games with quarterback Tom Brady on injured reserve, played its best defensive football of the season in December victories over Carolina, Buffalo and Jacksonville and completed a perfect regular season at Gillette Stadium with a 35-7 waxing of the Jags in Week 16.
Last Sunday in Houston, head coach Bill Belichick hardly rested his starters and paid a steep price when wide receiver Wes Welker (NFL-leading 123 receptions for 1,348 yards and four scores) was carted off the field in the first quarter of the 34-27 defeat. With Welker out after reportedly suffering a torn ACL and MCL, rookie Julian Edelman, cut in the same mold, becomes Brady's slot guy. Edelman caught 10 passes for 103 yards against the Texans, who scored 21 fourth-quarter points to end New England's three-game winning streak.
Brady, said to be battling broken ribs as well as a broken finger on his throwing hand, connected with nine different receivers in Week 4 against the Ravens, as the Patriots controlled the ball for almost 35 minutes despite rushing for just 85 yards.
Baltimore's Ray Rice gained 103 yards on 11 carries in Foxboro, and he scored seven of the team's league-leading 22 rushing touchdowns on the season. With the air attack averaging just 174 yards over the last five games, the efforts of Rice and McGahee will probably determine whether the Ravens advance to play Indianapolis.
If this game comes down to the kickers, New England has to like its chances. Stephen Gostkowski went 26-for-31 on field-goal tries and didn't miss any of his 47 extra-point attempts. Baltimore added Billy Cundiff midway through November, and he hit 18 of 23 field goals.
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Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
