Sportsbook.ag College Football Betting Preview Tigers vs Crimson Tide
Two teams vying for the top spot in the powerful SEC West will collide on Saturday night when No. 2 (Playoff Rankings) Alabama hosts No. 4 (Playoff Rankings) LSU.
LSU TIGERS (7-0) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (7-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Alabama -7, Total: 45.5
Both schools are well-rested coming off a bye week, and both are hoping that extra rest doesn't slow down momentum. The Tigers (4-3 ATS) are a perfect 7-0 this season, which includes three straight ATS victories at home versus South Carolina, Florida and Western Kentucky. The Crimson Tide (3-5 ATS) have won five straight games since their lone setback of the season to Ole Miss, but had trouble scoring in a narrow 19-14 home win over 14.5-point underdog Tennessee last game.
These SEC West foes are accustomed to meeting in matchups with national championship implications; which includes Alabama's 21-0 BCS National Championship win on Jan. 9, 2012 that began a string of four straight victories in the series. But last season's matchup at LSU needed overtime to determine the 20-13 final score.
There are several trends that expect the Tigers to cover on Saturday, including their 22-10 ATS record under head coach Les Miles after a turnover-free game, and 32-17 ATS mark on the road versus good rushing defenses (120 or less YPG) since 1992.
However, the Crimson Tide have a few favorable trends, including their 36-22 ATS record after 3+ straight SU wins under Nick Saban and 23-10 ATS mark after a SU win/ATS loss combination under Saban.
LSU's offense has piled up 38.9 PPG and 467 total YPG this season, but those numbers dip to a pedestrian 27.5 PPG and 381 total YPG in two road games. The Tigers run the football on 71% of their plays, and even though opponents know what's coming, they still average 310 rushing YPG on 6.7 YPC. Sophomore RB Leonard Fournette remains in the thick of the Heisman Trophy race with 1,352 rushing yards on 7.7 YPC and 15 touchdowns, but this will be the toughest front seven he will face all season, and Alabama held him to 79 yards on 21 carries (3.8 YPC) in last year's meeting.
If Fournette can't run through a stacked box of defenders, sophomore QB Brandon Harris has proven capable of moving the football through the air when he needs to. Harris has completed 59% of his throws for 1,098 yards (8.6 YPA), nine touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. The 6-foot-3 sophomore has topped 200 yards in three straight contests, throwing multiple TD passes each time. This includes a career-high 286 passing yards last week in rainy conditions versus Western Kentucky. Three of his receivers all had a reception of at least 55 yards, with junior WR Travin Dural posting a game-high 132 yards on just five catches (26.4 avg), giving him two 100-yard efforts in the past three games.
Defensively, LSU has been mostly strong all year, allowing just 22.6 PPG on 316 total YPG (4.8 yards per play). The run-stop unit has been especially stingy in holding opponents to 94 YPG on 3.3 YPC, while the passing defense is much more generous in allowing 222 YPG on 6.0 YPA and 57% completions. The unit would also like to force a few more turnovers, posting only three takeaways in the past three games combined. This number could rise against a sometimes careless Tide club that has given the football away 14 times in the past seven games.
After scoring at least 27 points in each of its first seven games, Alabama's offense is coming off a season-low 19 points last game versus Tennessee. Despite the low output, the team is still averaging 33.5 PPG on 422 total YPG this season. Balance has been a key, as the Tide are gaining 233 YPG on 7.1 YPA through the air and adding 188 YPG on 4.5 YPC on the ground.
Junior RB Derrick Henry is the engine to this offense with 1,044 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC with 14 touchdowns. He has racked up five games of 125+ yards this season, including two in a row where he's totaled 379 yards on 60 carries (6.3 YPC) and four touchdowns.
Senior QB Jake Coker doesn't have incredible numbers with 203 passing YPG, 7.3 YPA, 11 TD and 7 INT, but he has connected on 64% of his throws with a completion rate of at least 73% in each of the past three contests. His favorite target is freshman WR Calvin Ridley who is coming off a monster month of October with 28 receptions for 400 yards and 2 TD over four games, all versus SEC opponents.
Per usual, the Alabama defense is excellent in all facets, holding teams to a mere 16.4 PPG on 276 total YPG (4.2 yards per play) this season. The rushing defense is most impressive in holding teams to 78 YPG on 2.6 YPC, but the passing defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete only 51% of their passes for 197 YPG and 5.5 YPA. The unit has also forced 17 turnovers this season, including 12 takeaways over the past five contests.
