TCU vs. Minnesota Betting Odds – Week 1 College Football

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Aug/31/2015
TCU vs. Minnesota Betting Odds – Week 1 College Football

Carrie Stroup here with your TCU vs. Minnesota betting odds for Week 1 College Football.

Sportsbook.ag Line: TCU -15.5, Total: 58

No. 2 TCU looks to embark on a championship season Thursday when it opens up the 2015 campaign at Minnesota.

After a dreadful 4-8 season in 2013, the Horned Frogs put together a huge 2014 campaign, going 12-1 SU (11-2 ATS) with an offense that put up 46.5 points per game (2nd in nation) and 533 total yards per game (5th in FBS). Much of that was due to the play of Heisman hopeful QB Trevone Boykin, who is one of nine offensive starters to return to Fort Worth this season. TCU also boasted a top-notch defense that allowed only 19.0 PPG (8th in nation) on 342 YPG (18th in FBS). The Horned Frogs put so much pressure on opposing quarterbacks (3.1 sacks per game, 11th in nation; 8.6 TFL per game, 2nd in FBS) that the secondary was able to lead the nation with 26 interceptions. Three of those picks came against Minnesota in TCU's 30-7 blowout in Fort Worth last September. The Golden Gophers were able to dominate time of possession (34:25 to 25:35), but were held to 99 yards on 39 carries and turned the ball over five times.

Minnesota (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2014) has been profitable for bettors in the past two seasons with a 17-9 ATS mark overall, including 10-4 ATS at home. Star RB David Cobb is gone to the NFL, but the ground game should still remain strong (216 YPG, 28th in nation) with all five starting offensive linemen returning. Without Cobb, Minnesota may opt to throw the football more than its meager 19.5 passing attempts per game in 2014 (7th-fewest in FBS). Returning QB Mitch Leidner was pretty efficient on his throws, as the Golden Gophers ranked 12th in the nation in yards per completion (14.52).

TCU benefits from the fact that good offensive teams from last season (31+ PPG) in non-conference BCS games were 34-7 ATS (83%) when favored between 10.5 and 21 points. However, the Horned Frogs have not been a strong bet in this scenario, going 2-10 ATS as a road favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992.

In last season's blowout of the Golden Gophers, QB Trevone Boykin (3,901 pass yds, 7.9 YPA, 33 TD, 10 INT) tossed 19 incomplete passes (27-of-46), but still racked up 350 total yards of offense, as he threw for 258 yards and 2 TD, while adding 92 yards on 12 carries. Much of Boykin's success through the air was due to targeting top WR Josh Doctson (1,018 rec yds, 11 TD) who returns for his senior season. An injured hand has hindered Doctson in fall practice, but he's listed as probable for Thursday's opener. In last year's meeting with Minnesota, Doctson caught both of Boykin's touchdown throws and finished with six receptions for 64 yards.

The TCU offense should remain very balanced with the return of senior RB Aaron Green (922 rush yds, 7.1 YPC, 9 TD) to run behind a beefy offensive line that returns four seniors.

On defense, the Frogs did an outstanding job stuffing the run last year with 108.8 rushing YPG allowed (9th in nation) on an FBS-low 2.78 YPC. This was a big reason why the team ranked second in FBS on third downs, limiting opponents to a paltry 28% conversion rate. DEs James McFarland and Terrell Lathan (12.5 sacks combined) are two of five senior starters returning to Fort Worth. The secondary still needs work after allowing 233 passing YPG (75th in nation), but FS Derrick Kindred (4 INT) is a ballhawk.

Minnesota will likely use a committee to replace RB David Cobb, who gained 1,626 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground last year. RB Rodrick Williams Jr. (114 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 3 TD) should get the bulk of carries with RBs Berkley Edwards (140 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 2 TD) and redshirt freshman Rodney Smith backing him up. QB Mitch Leidner (452 rush yds, 10 TD) will continue to use his legs to move the chains.

In the passing game, Leidner (1,798 pass yds, 7.6 YPA, 11 TD, 8 INT) will miss star TE Maxx Williams, and will need to rely more on WRs KJ Maye (298 rec yds) and 6-foot-3 sophomore Drew Wolitarsky (106 rec yds).

The Gophers should remain solid on defense, as they return seven starters to a unit that limited opponents to 24.2 PPG (33rd in FBS) on 368 total YPG (39th in nation). The leaders of the defense are DL Theiren Cockran (4 sacks), LB De'Vondre Campbell (75 tackles) and CB Eric Murray (69 tackles, 7 PBU). Minnesota was very opportunistic in 2014 by forcing 30 turnovers (11th in FBS), but was dreadful in the red zone, allowing opponents to score 90% of the time they got inside the 20-yard-line (114th in nation).

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

 

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