Top MAC Conference Teams Rockets @ Falcons Square Off

Two of the top teams in the MAC Conference will lace up the cleats on Tuesday night when Toledo visits Bowling Green.

TOLEDO ROCKETS (8-1) at BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (8-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Bowling Green -7.5, Total: 70

The Rockets are 5-1 SU in conference play this year, which puts them in a three-way tie for first in the MAC West Division with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan. The Falcons have already clinched the MAC East with a perfect 6-0 SU record.

Toledo is 7-1-1 ATS this season including a perfect 4-0 record (SU and ATS) on the road. This includes last week's 28-23 win at 2.5-point favorite Central Michigan. Bowling Green (8-2 ATS) is 4-0 ATS at home this season where it averages 56.0 PPG, and the school has scored at least 28 points in each of seven consecutive wins that began with a 35-28 victory at Purdue on Sept. 26.

These in-conference foes are meeting for the 80th time with a nearly even split of 39-36-4 in favor of Bowling Green. But this decade, Toledo has dominated and won all five games, however, three of those were by a touchdown or less, including last season's 27-20 triumph.

There are plenty of reasons to wager on either side for Tuesday, as the Rockets are 8-1 ATS after playing Under the total in their previous game, and 7-1 ATS versus teams with 60+ penalty yards per game since 2013. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 6-0 ATS after scoring 35+ points in a conference win over the past three seasons and 9-2 ATS under Dino Babers after gaining 450+ total yards in two straight games.

Toledo's offense has been productive this season with 34.9 PPG and 468 total YPG, and those numbers jump to 38.5 PPG and 518 total YPG in conference play. The team has great balance with similar totals both on the ground with 217 rushing YPG on 5.3 YPC, plus 251 passing YPG.

Senior QB Phillip Ely (6.9 YPA, 18 TD, 9 INT) has done a great job of remaining upright, as he has suffered only two sacks in 318 dropbacks this season. Ely played poorly (15-of-33, 136 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT) in the team's lone loss two weeks ago versus Northern Illinois, but came back strong last Saturday with 322 passing yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.

The Rockets don't have a true go-to receiver, but three pass catchers are certainly capable of leading the team in any game with sophomore WR Cody Thompson (553 rec yds, 4 TD), senior WR Alonzo Russell (482 rec yds, 4 TD) and junior WR Corey Jones (426 rec yds, 4 TD). Russell was the big gainer last week with 86 yards and a touchdown, but the Rockets may try to run the football heavily like last season against Bowling Green when they had only 63 passing yards and 325 rushing yards.

Kareem Hunt had 265 of those yards on 30 carries (8.8 YPC) with two touchdowns, and he enters this game running very well with 253 yards (5.6 YPC) and 4 TD over the past two games. Toledo will also hand the football off to top RB Terry Swanson (749 rush yds, 7.0 YPC, 5 TD) who has four games of 118+ rushing yards in the past six contests, but the sophomore gained only 26 yards on 10 carries at Central Michigan last week.

The Toledo defense has been quite stingy this year in holding opponents to 18.8 PPG and 376 total YPG on 5.0 yards per play. The run-stop unit has given up only 118 YPG on 3.4 YPC, but the passing defense has allowed too many big plays with 258 YPG on 6.4 YPA. The Rockets have also helped themselves out with 13 takeaways in the past seven games, but are facing an opponent with only two giveaways in the past six games combined.

Bowling Green has scored a whopping 45.4 PPG on 585 total YPG this season, which includes 50.3 PPG over the past three games. While the Falcons are productive in rushing the football with 171 YPG on 4.3 YPC, they are a superior passing team with 414 YPG on 9.4 YPA.

Senior QB Matt Johnson is completing 69% of his throws this season for 3,955 yards (2nd in nation behind Washington State's Luke Falk) with an FBS-leading 36 touchdowns and only 4 INT. In the past five weeks, Johnson has thrown for 1,871 yards (374 YPG), 22 TD and 2 INT. Four Bowling Green players have already eclipsed 550 receiving yards in 2015 with at least four touchdowns. Sophomore WR Roger Lewis has put up All-American numbers, ranking second in the nation with 1,310 receiving yards and catching 14 touchdowns (T-2nd in FBS behind Baylor's Corey Coleman) including a 94-yarder against Memphis.

Bowling Green does not rush the football often, but both RBs Travis Greene (866 rush yds, 5.8 YPC, 10 TD) and Fred Coppet (590 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 2 TD) have proven to be capable backs.

The offense has needed to score so many points this year because the Falcons defense has been subpar in allowing 27.9 PPG on 440 total YPG. They have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60% of their passes for 270 YPG on 6.9 YPA, and the unit has surrendered 169 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. Turnovers have been crucial though, as Bowling Green has generated multiple takeaways in five straight contests, totaling 12 forced turnovers. The Rockets, who have three giveaways in two of their past three games, must be very careful in protecting the football on Tuesday night.