Kentucky Derby 2010 Predictions

These are Gambling911.com's Kentucky Derby 2010 predictions.

It will rain and there will be plenty of mud.  Last check the chances were around 80 percent of this happening.

The Kentucky Derby 2010 contenders that run best in mud include Backtalk, Devil May Car, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Paddy O'Prado. 

Backtalk (listed at +4850 long odds for a payout potential of $485 on every $10 bet) appeared to be getting the most praise for his ability to run in mud.

Backtalk is the son of Smarty Jones and won a couple of graded 2-year-old stakes, then went on to be favored in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, finishing eighth. According to all reports he has thrived physically since arriving at Churchill Downs and should be ready to fire his best race yet.  He finished third at the Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby.  The mud gives this hot horse an added advantage.  Ed McNamara of TwinCities.com points out that the only winner around two turns on a wet track is 50-1 shot Backtalk but "he gets an asterisk because it was at Delta Downs, a 6-furlong bull ring in the Louisiana boondocks".

The problem with Backtalk winning the Kentucky Derby 2010, he's racing from the number 18 post position and only ONCE has a horse won from there.

Of all the muddy track loving horses mentioned, our Kentucky Derby 2010 predictions focus on Paddy O'Prado, who starts off in the number 10 post position.  That position has turned out 10 winning horses throughout the history of the Kentucky Derby. 

Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form emphasizes: "Paddy O'Prado has been machine-like in his efficiency during routine morning gallops, chugging along with the look of a horse who can run all day. His final Derby prep may have been the most impressive of any I saw last week, five furlongs in 58.44 seconds with a six-furlong gallop-out of 1:11.06 and seven-eighths in 1:25.62. That drill came over a very sloppy track, and with the forecast calling for rain, a wet track would only seem to enhance his chances. Peaking at the right time, and in my mind the best value play in this evenly matched lineup."

We agree.  Paddy O'Prado we say has the best shot of winning the Kentucky Derby 2010, or at least he should be considered within your trifecta.  And at +2000 odds, paying $200 for every $10 bet, the value here is great.

Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com