Utah US Presidential Odds Update: Trump Slight Favorite Again

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Oct/31/2016

  • Trump had narrow lead of -120, McMullin +120
  • Utah has been reliably red over the years but 62 percent Mormon majority not enthusiastic over Trump
  • In a recent Monmouth poll, only 19 percent of Utah Mormons viewed Trump favorably.
  • "Mormons as a group has deeply ingrained within their psyche that they are a religious minority that has experienced persecution,” expert on the religious group suggests
  • Trump commits faux pas while criticizing McMullin that raises eyebrows of Mormons

With former chief policy director for the House Republican Conference in the U.S. House of Representatives Evan McMullin as the favorite to win the state of Utah last week, GOP nominee Donald Trump has recaptured the favorite status just days ahead of the November 8 US Presidential election.

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Trump was coming in at -120 odds, McMullin +120 and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at much longer 8-1 odds.

McMullin, a Utah resident, has campaigned hard in a state that is 62 percent Mormon and typically reliably Republican.  But the majority religious group appears to have been turned off by Trump.

"There isn't a simple answer when it comes to Mormons and Trump," Mormon Stephanie Fowers told NPR. "We are so torn right now that hardly anyone I know will even mention his name anymore because it's too depressing."

In a recent Monmouth poll, only 19 percent of Utah Mormons viewed Trump favorably.

"Mormons as a group has deeply ingrained within their psyche that they are a religious minority that has experienced persecution in the not-distant past," said David Campbell, professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame and co-author of Seeking the Promised Land: Mormons and American Politics.

Trump did not do himself any favors over the weekend after committing a bit of a faux pas in criticizing McMullin. 

“He’s going from coffee shop to coffee shop. It’s a full-time thing. He can’t do anything, but he hurts us in Utah…I know the people of Utah. If they go enough for this character that’s running all over the state ….we lose the state of Utah”

The problem: Mormons don’t’ drink coffee.

For his part, McMullin shot back at Trump, who suggested he had never heard of the one-time CIA operations officer.

.@realDonaldTrump, Yes you’ve never heard of me because while you were harassing women at beauty pageants, I was fighting terrorists abroad.

McMullin, who is not on the ballot in all states, is hoping to win enough states to prevent neither Trump or Clinton from achieving the magic 270 electoral college votes.  Idaho is another state where McMullin is expected to yield strong numbers.

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

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