Expert handicapper Tony George of TonyGeorgeSports.com talks Major League Baseball betting and why too much betting may not always be the best thing.
Let me preface this by saying this is MY approach to handicapping and betting MLB. I am not representing or arguing this approach against other professional handicappers or sports bettors who do it differently. I know this works for me, my bankroll, and my piece of mind when betting professional baseball.
You see MLB has a problem. Too many games and the games are too long, which means your core audience are either hardcore fans and or hardcore sports bettors. Therefore, MLB and the NBA executive’s both favor fantasy sports, an in many respects sports gambling on their brands, especially Adam Silver of the NBA. They need that interest in their brands to drive ratings and keep them viable because of the sheer amount of games played.
Let’s talk specifically about the game of baseball itself, America’s so called favorite pastime, but even with this I disagree. The NFL is America’s pastime and America’s game, and when you look at TV ratings you simply cannot argue with me, this is a fact. The NFL is also in my opinion the easiest sport to bet and win money at, bar none. The reason I make this statement is the reason I bet a higher volume of NFL games than I do in baseball.
You see in MLB teams have 160 games before any post season. No one single particular game carries any amount of huge significance unless they are in the playoff hunt in late August, so from April till mid-August you will see Team A Blowout Team B and Team B was a -220 favorite at home with a past Cy Young winner on the mound and you are just shocked they got beat 7-1, but I am not.
When you are betting on a team and they decide to take the night off so to speak, you lose your rear end. THIS IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN MLB. I do not wager nor to I advise clients on sports selection by just throwing it up against the wall and see if it sticks, I need some value in the line and a good angle. These players know they have another game the next day, and 135 games still left to play and no matter the outcome they are getting paid. Teams that have no chance in the post season hunt, even before the All-Star break are a hit and miss wager despite the fact they may even have their one Ace on the mound starting that night, their effort as a team is sub-par. The NBA is somewhat similar as they have 80 games in a regular season.
Take the NFL and College Football as the polar opposite. In the NFL there are only 16 games in the regular season, every single game counts. There is a huge emphasis on every single game you play, and you can better assess a team based on stats, and you know that when Team A plays Team B, they are for the most part bringing their A Game every Sunday to the field. College Football has 13 games, and you have a similar situation. With MLB having 160 games, again, there is little emphasis on any single game.
Now you do have hated rivalries in MLB and you do have teams that are well managed and bring it more times than not, and you have teams that simply love to win or get on a roll. So, you do have scenario’s which are few and far between during the week that you can find value in the line and you have a feeling, with years of experience (I have been handicapping games for 25 years), where you find that Gem worth betting your hard earned dollars on. Anyone betting 5 or 6 games a day is going to lose their rear end, and moneyline wagering is tricky at best for most recreational sports bettors. It can get ugly very quickly with a busted bankroll.
Thus, my volume is very low in MLB as far as the amount of games I put out and wager on. I can find one a day if I am lucky and sometimes I find absolutely nothing to wager on because the mis-matches that show up on paper are so chalky on the moneyline that they have no value and the run line is risky as well.
I single out Best Bets out of the games presented on the Las Vegas Line daily, and usually find one a day or every other day. Less is more guys, and while that is not exciting and adrenaline filled for action junkies, it is the proper way in my opinion to bet daily sports such as MLB and even the NBA. Slow and Steady is my approach, and if you use this approach your bankroll will thank you at seasons end. Remember the Turtle did win the race, did you read that book or watch that cartoon?
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