Why Bookie Opinions Matter in Picking Winners
One of the advantages Gambling911.com readers have is the ability to make educated decisions based on sportsbook opinions (found on our bookie landing page here).
These opinions are revealed through line movements versus the amount of money coming in on a particular side.
Put simply, if there is significant lopsided betting action coming in on a particular side in which game volume is heavy and the oddsmakers are either holding that game line or encouraging more action on the public favorite, the bookies feel confident that the other side will cover.
The New York Giants offered up a perfect example during Week 12.
We here at Gambling911.com watched as the Giants were seeing nearly 85% of the action against Washington as a -1 road favorite yet bookies moved this line from -3 to -2 during a 48 hour period despite the huge action on New York.
“The probability of a Redskins cover in this scenario was around 80%,” suggests Don Shapiro of Gambling911.com. “When we see opinions like this, rarely are the sportsbooks ever wrong.”
That’s not to say they are always right, just that they usually are.
Typically these opinions are derived from significant sharp action going against public sentiment. Perhaps there is a certain tried and true trend not readily available for public consumption.
In the case of the Giants, they were coming off a bye week. Some teams, like the Vikings (0-5), for whatever the reason have not fared well in recent years following a bye week. New York though was 4-1 after a bye week prior to this past weekend.
It could be something as simple as comparing the two teams strengths in terms of defense, offense, rushing yards, passing yards allowed and so on. Using these measurements, the folks at OddsShark.com did give Washington a two-point edge.
- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com
