2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions
Gambling911.com has its 2012 Kentucky Derby predictions. We’ve looked at each horse’ past performance, post position history, possible track conditions and more.
We also consider the value. All 2012 Kentucky Derby betting odds were available at Bookmaker.eu, which has been serving the wagering public since 1985 and offers 8 percent back on daily losses.
Daddy Long Legs – None of the trainers seemed to want to draw the number one spot. Oddly enough, horses running from this position have won more Kentucky Derby races than any other spot except for the number 5. Both positions are tied for 12 wins apiece. Daddy Long Legs is questionable on dirt, however, therefore the 30/1 odds may be a bit too generous in our opinion.
Optimizer – Has a favorable post position. He, too, was bred for synthetic tracks, not the dirt. In fact, he’s performed poorly on dirt in most of his races. The only reason we can see betting him is for the 50/1 odds, but anything less than that has zero value. Bookmaker.eu had him at 23/1, which are pathetic odds for this particular horse. Any signs of rain, stay clear of Optimizer!
Take Charge Indy – Watch this horse. He’s ridden by Calvin Borel who has won a few of the Kentucky Derby races in recent years. Eight horses have won from the number 3 spot. He’s definitely on the upswing, and with Borel guiding the way, at 12/1 odds, he’s a steal.
Union Rags – As the co-favorite with Bodemeister, Union Rags had some value at 4/1 especially with a good post position. He faltered in the Florida Derby, and that presents a concern. Some experts have attempted to offer up explanations as to why Union Rags lost the Florida Derby while attempting to demonstrate he is ready for a major comeback. 4/1 is a little low right now in our opinion although this is definitely a horse to consider carefully among your trifecta wagers. Watch the weather as Union Rags can run in the mud. We might go for Union Rags at 6/1 especially with rain in the forecast.
Dullahan – Has the best post position, one that has won 12 times in Derby history. He’s perhaps the best deep closer among the 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. When arriving at our 2012 Kentucky Derby predictions, Dullahan is a horse we here at Gambling911.com are high on, especially at 8 to 1 odds.
Bodemeister – At press time he was being offered up at +450 at Bookmaker compared to 4/1 elsewhere so you might want to snatch him up at this price. He needs to be on everyone’s short list of likely horses to win. He killed it at the Arkansas Derby. Bodemeister is a Bob Balfert-trained horse that has run great in the muck should rain move in Saturday.
Rousing Sermon - Has run well in training at Churchill Downs. The number 7 position has resulted in 7 victories. He’s a deep closer that can potentially challenge at this spot. At 38/1 odds, Rousing Sermon is worth a look.
Creative Cause – He’ll be in the 8th post position, which has produced 4 winners over the past two decades. He has only one win from his last four starts and is prone to misbehave. At +650 odds, Creative Cause is hardly a bargain.
Trinniberg - Figures to be among the early speedsters in a decent post position that has produced the lowest number of winners among the top 10. He’s never raced past seven furloughs and is bred for short distances. Even at 40/1 odds, it’s difficult to bet him based on this knowledge.
Daddy Nose Best – He’s be running from the number 10 position, which has produced 11 winners in Derby history. He can run on any track and is an excellent closer. This is a horse on the upswing with some solid wins coming into Saturday’s race. At 17 to 1 odds for a payout potential of $1700 on every $100 bet, Daddy Nose Best needs some degree of consideration. He’s certainly on our top six list.
Among the remaining Kentucky Derby contenders, the lower 20 post positions tend not to produce many winners. The only exception we can see is Gemologist at 6/1 odds, entering this race with a perfect record. He’s a speedy Todd Pletcher-trained horse worthy of a wager, whether it be to win the Derby or as part of a trifecta.
Before you decide to bet on either Done Talking or I’ll Have Another, remember that no horse has ever won from their respective post position in the history of the Kentucky Derby.
It is also difficult to imagine the number 16 position producing two consecutive winners especially one like El Padrino, who flopped in his Florida Derby prep race. Granted he has top pedigree and can run in the slop should the rains arrive. There are better horses that run in the mud, however.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
