2022 Week 1 NFL Line Moves, Action Reviews and Free Picks: IND vs HOU, NO vs ATL, NE vs MIA
We have all the betting action and line movements that matter for Week 1 of the new 2022 NFL season. We also have Super Bowl champion, 9x Pro-Bowler and a future NFL Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware providing a preview of the 2022 NFL Season with Drew Butler. Betting courtesy of our friends at BetOnline.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Early Line Movement (Within 48 hours of Release) - NA
Recreational Books Trending (Saturday) Colts -8 to -7
Sharp Books Trending (Saturday) -7
Spread Action (Saturday) 75% Colts
Sagarin -9 Colts
The line on this one had been Colts -9 the week leading into this game and dropped to -7 on Tuesday.
Our pick on this game is Texans +7
NFL Living Legend DeMarcus Ware previews the 2022 NFL Season | @betonline_ag All Access... https://t.co/OC2jSJD31s via @YouTube
— gambling911 (@gambling911) September 10, 2022
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Early Line Movement (Within 48 hours of Release) -3.5 to -4.5 first few days then to -5.
Recreational Books Trending (Saturday) -5.5 steady
Sharp Books Trending (Saturday) -5.5
Spread Action (Saturday) Saints 80%
Sagarin Saints -6
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (Opened Saints -3.5)
Over the course of one week spanning May 12 through 18, the Saints were bet up from -3.5 to -4.5 and a few days later the line moved up another half point to -5. Most books had the line at -5.5 on the Tuesday before Game Day and that was the trend right through Saturday.
Sagarin has the Falcons at the very bottom of their power ratings (32) coming in at 10.98. New Orleans (21) had a power rating of 19.40. Taking this week's 2.50 home field advantage to Atlanta, we get a line of New Orleans -6. As already stated, the line has been moving up towards 6 from 3.5 but most books were reluctant to hit the 6 as of Tuesday. 74% of the action was on New Orleans midweek, and that number seemed to be edging closer to 80% by Saturday.
As a home underdog, Atlanta is 2-9 Straight Up since 2017, though this is not a big enough sampling. As an underdog, the Falcons are 13-28 SU (31.7%) since that time. As an away favorite since 2017, New Orleans is 20-5 Straight Up (80%).
For us, we will be on New Orleans -5.5 even if we are siding heavily with the public.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Early Line Movement (Within 48 hours of Release) - None
Recreational Books Trending (Tuesday September 6) -3 to -3.5.
Sharp Books Trending (Tuesday September 6) -3 to -3.5.
Spread Action (Tuesday September 6) NA
Sagarin Miami -2
As a home favorite, Miami is 10-2 Straight Up since 2017.
There is a potential here that you can bet the Dolphins Straight Up on the moneyline and the Patriots to cover the +3.5 spread to win both sides. We are more inclined to back the Patriots at +3.5.
- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
