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OAKLAND PARK, Fla (Gambling911.com) - The Falcons are the last team to finalize plans for the opening week of the 2026 campaign and the verdict is now in. Tua Tagovailoa has beaten Michael Penix Jr and the Falcons win total odds are, well, not great.
Oddsmakers have the Falcons winning just 5.5 regular season games, technically 6 as the over is favored at -230.
Do keep in mind that the Falcons have had a different starting quarterback in Week 1 in each of the past six seasons.
Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski said he has "blinders" when it comes to any long-term decisions beyond Atlanta's opener Sunday at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
"I've got the blinders on, so I see Week 1 in front of me and after this one, then we'll start on the next one and those type of things," Stefanski said. "So, I don't think it's fair to really go past this week on anything related to our football team."
Stefanski said Penix, who is recovering from a knee injury that ended his 2025 season, will be inactive in Week 1 while Cooper Rush will serve as Tagovailoa's backup against the Steelers.
"I think every decision I make for the football team, you're taking in all the information available to you," Stefanski said. "Sometimes information changes and certainly with a decision like this, you want to make sure that you're taking all the information from the spring to the summer to how people are performing -- those type of things. So felt really strongly about this group and feel good about where we're heading."
The Falcons signed Tagovailoa to a one-year, $1.3 million contract in the offseason. He was released in March by the Miami Dolphins, who took on a record $99.2 million in dead cap to part ways with the six-year veteran.
Stefanski intimated that while Penix is technically cleared, he might not be as ready as he needs to be for game action.
"Mike is getting better and better and better, and I'm very proud of him for, again, for how far he's come," Stefanski said. "But this will continue to be something that we work together [on] with Mike.
Tagovailoa started training camp with a tight back and missed the first week of practices.
Tagovailoa, 28, led the NFL in passing yards (4,624) in 2023 and in completion percentage (72.9%) in 2024. Last season, Tagovailoa's took a step back, plagued by turnovers and uneven performances Overall during his six season career, he completed 68% of his passes for 18,166 yards with 120 touchdowns and 59 interceptions.
Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Win Total Odds
Atlanta Falcons Over 5.5 Wins
-230
Atlanta Falcons Under 5.5 Wins
+190
Atlanta Falcons Over 6.5 Wins
-135
Atlanta Falcons Under 6.5 Wins
+115
Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 Wins
+125
Atlanta Falcons Under 7.5 Wins
-145
Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins
+210
Atlanta Falcons Under 8.5 Wins
-250
Atlanta Falcons Over 9.5 Wins
+350
Atlanta Falcons Under 9.5 Wins
-450
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
