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One of the more interesting storylines during the 2016 Presidential Election postmortem concerned the accuracy of polling data or, more appropriately in this case, the lack thereof. Journalists that considered a Clinton victory inevitable tried to deflect blame for calling the election completely wrong and many pointed their fingers at polling. To make a long story short, the problem wasn’t the polling data itself but the interpretation of it. Many political pundits used the data validate their belief and/or hope that Clinton would win instead of doing an objective analysis. This is what is often referred to a a confirmation bias—the tendency to seek and interpret information in such a way as to confirm a pre-existing belief or hypothesis.
American political wonks might have been caught with their metaphorical pants down but the betting markets weren’t. In fact, many observers noted the discrepancy between individual betting odds and polling data as an early ‘tell’ that something was amiss. Then again, you didn’t have to be a ‘wise guy’ to notice that in the six weeks before the election Hillary Clinton’s odds to win had dropped from -700 to -250 and to realize the implications of this. Interesting, the political media doesn’t look to have learned their lesson as the ongoing hysterics about Trump are in marked contrast to the behavior of the betting markets.
Based on the reporting of the mainstream media it would seem that the Trump administration is falling apart and with it his chances for reelection in 2020. The betting public begs to differ and the odds markets at online sportsbooks suggest that Trump is again much stronger than his political opponents are willing to concede. At BetOnline.ag, Trump has received more bets to win the 2020 Presidential Election than every other candidate combined.
Trump’s odds to win reelection are currently 3/2 with the closest Democratic challenger listed as California Senator Kamala Harris at 10/1. BetOnline.ag brand manager Dave Mason observed that Trump’s odds have dropped from +275 (11/4) in Spring of 2017 to the current price due to strong and steady flow of betting action:
"We still have a huge exposure on Trump. There are more bets on Trump than all of the other names on the 2020 election list, combined. Trump's poll numbers really don’t slow people from betting on him. It doesn’t matter what he does/tweet/who he offends. Bettors are still pounding him at plus money," says Mason.”
Trump’s strong position in the 2020 betting market has not been lost on those within his administration including White House Social Media Director Dan Scavino, Jr.:
Team Trump might not understand the implications of the odds market itself, but they were obviously excited about a strong sign that he may be in the White House for ‘four more years’.
