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It's interesting to note that the total on the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals game has moved from 9.5 to 10.5, though most books were settled in at 10 and some hadn't even moved the number.
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65% were on the OVER at 10.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Jordan Lyles (7-8, 4.71 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.75)
Lyles has been solid in his three starts since coming over in a trade from Pittsburgh, going 2-1 while allowing five runs (three earned) on eight hits over 17 innings combined. The 28-year-old has struck out 14 and walked eight in his three outings with the Brewers, losing last time out despite tossing seven innings of one-run ball. Turner is 4-for-7 with a homer versus Lyles, who is 0-2 with a 5.55 ERA in 10 career appearances (two starts) against Washington.
Sanchez is unbeaten in his last 14 trips to the mound, winning seven of those outings, after starting the season 0-6 with a 5.27 ERA in the first eight games. The 35-year-old Venezuela native gave up one earned run over six frames to win at San Francisco on Aug. 6 before holding the New York Mets to three tallies across five innings of a no-decision Aug. 11. Braun is 4-for-9 with a homer against Sanchez, who beat Milwaukee last year while giving up a run over 6 2/3 frames.
The idea that this one is trending towards 10.5 with two starters pitching particularly well is enough for one to scratch their head.
It might make some degree of sense if we were to believe one or both of these starters is due for a bad outing. After all, only one of the last ten meetings has gone OVER 10 runs, and yesterday's game only resulted in three.
Even though we'd exercise caution betting the UNDER here, recent trends discourage us from taking the OVER. Washington, for example, has only permitted more than four runs to be scored in three of their last ten overall.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
