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The gambling public took quite a hit Friday night backing the Brewers at an 86% clip. Today, they are staying away with Jimmy Nelson stepping to the mound with his 12.00 ERA in this afternoon game and facing off against Madison Bumgarner. Surprisingly both teams are at around -108.
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Six of the last ten in this series have gone UNDER the current total of 7.5 with that number dropping from 8 despite 65% or greater of the action on the OVER.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 12.00 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (3-6, 3.83)
Nelson made his first start in 21 months on Wednesday and allowed five runs - four earned - over three innings in an 8-1 loss to Miami. "He's disappointed with how it went, but you have to keep getting back up," Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell told reporters. "He's fought this fight for a long time now. He has to keep getting up, keep getting better, and he'll do that." The 30-year-old missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury after going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in 2017.
Bumgarner was a hard-luck loser on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers after allowing one run and four hits in seven innings. The four-time All-Star will be a free agent at the end of the season and could be one of several veterans dealt by the Giants before the July 31 trade deadline. Yasmani Grandal is 2-for-16 with seven strikeouts against Bumgarner, who is 7-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 career starts versus Milwaukee - including an 0-2 record and 4.50 mark in two outings last season.
Milwaukee scored three runs against San Francisco on Friday. We can see Bumgarner bouncing back and lasting into the 6th. San Francisco has one of the better bullpens in Major League Baseball.
Likewise, Nelson could pitch much better here. The Brewers, after all, are 5-1 in Nelson’s last 6 starts.
The UNDER is 13-2-1 in the Brewers last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter and and 4-0 in Nelson’s last 4 road starts.
The UNDER is 14-6-2 in Bumgarner’s last 22 home starts.
We will be on the UNDER 7.5 here
Our Free Picks Record June 15
2019 MLB Record: 17-9-2 (65.4%) - No Plays Over -160
2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)
2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)
2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)
2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
