CFB Betting – North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes

While the top teams in the ACC take a week off to prepare for the conference championship match, the next two best squads will assemble when the North Carolina Tar Heels visit the Miami Hurricanes in what we’ll call the bronze medal game. The Canes overcame a lengthy COVID-inspired delay returning to the field last week to wallop Duke 45-0. Miami did all it could to reach the conference title game for the first time since 2017, but their only loss came at Clemson denying them a chance. This matchup could be a lot of fun to watch with two impressive offenses led by dynamic quarterbacks. Miami opened as a 4-point favorite on the college football betting line with the number wagered down to -3.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600).

North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes
Date and Time: Saturday, December 12, 2020, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
CFB Odds: Miami -3, O/U 68
North Carolina at Miami TV Coverage: ABC

Odds Analysis

North Carolina recovered from its loss to Notre Dame, which knocked them out of contention for the conference championship, by beating FCS Western Carolina 49-9. The Heels improved to 7-3 SU but failed to cover the massive 50-point spread. That’s because most of the regulars took a seat in the second half after building a huge lead. The Heels have dropped three straight against the line and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. UNC has played just once as an underdog, losing to the Irish 31-17 while catching 4.5-points. The current total of 68 is the lowest in the last four outings with the UNDER at 2-1 in the previous three. Three weeks off between games isn’t ideal, but the Canes showed no signs of rust against Duke, easily covering the 14.5-point closing line improving to 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS.

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina matched its win total from last season while playing three fewer games, so the season is a success from that standpoint. However, there were some disappointing losses that prevented the Heels from achieving better things. It’ll take some time to get over that 31-28 setback to Florida State where they were positioned as a two-touchdown favorite. A 44-41 loss to Virginia is also tough to swallow. Both of those came on the road where the Heels are 2-2 SU and 1-4 ATS.

With chance to show off against one of the top teams in the country, the explosive offense was held in check by Notre Dame, the result was a 31-17 defeat with the Heels held to season-lows in points and total yards (298). Sure, Notre Dame has a good defense, but the Heels picked a bad time to play their worst game. The offense got a boost of confidence against a lesser opponent pounding Western Carolina for 540 yards, the seventh time in 10 games the Heels totaled at least 500 yards. They are fifth in the country in yards per game with 534.5 while scoring 41.1 points.

The balanced attack keeps opposing defenses on its toes. With Javonte Carter and Michael Williams each rushing for over 900 yards, the Heels boast a top-20 ground game. And Howell ranks ninth nationally and first in the ACC with 312.9 passing yards per game. UNC hasn’t been nearly as good defensively, though. The effort against WCU helped, but the Heels still allow more than 400 yards and nearly 29 points per game.

Miami Hurricanes

COVID ravaged the Canes putting them on hiatus for a few weeks. They played two games before the break shorthanded and weren’t at full strength when they returned. Yet they won all three games and looked their best last week pounding Duke. If they can do that playing without a full complement of players just imagine how good they’ll be at full strength. “There were five or six other players that we found out could play just one day before the (Duke) game. We’re hoping the list of players out will be much shorter this week,” Manny Diaz said.

One player who apparently contracted the virus but didn’t miss any time was D’Eriq King. And it’s a good thing for the Canes. Using the down time to become one of the 99 percent of the population to recover, King was on fire against Duke accounting for four touchdowns. He tossed three scoring passes hitting 16 of 24 attempts for 248 yards. He added 46 yards and a score on 11 rushes showing off his dual threat ability once again. King ranks third in the ACC behind Howell and Trevor Lawrence in total offense.

Due to their COVID outbreak and the shuffling of the schedule, the Canes haven’t played a home game since knocking off Virginia 19-14 on Oct. 24. They are 4-0 at Hard Rock Stadium with their lone spread loss against the Cavs when they were laying 13.5-points on the closing line. In those games Miami has outscored its opponents 133-57.

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If anything this game will be fun to watch. With Miami getting more players back and with a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl you can expect them to come out firing. I don’t trust UNC’s defense and King should have a big day, keeping him and the Canes one step ahead all afternoon.

CFB Score Prediction: Miami 44, North Carolina 38

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com