College Football – 2019 Week 11 Wise Guy Picks

Good things never last and our wise guy ride at online sportsbooks came to an end last week. You can’t win ‘em all, I guess. At least we didn’t lose everything and came away with one winner on our three wise guy picks from last week. Those wacky dudes have been kind and profitable to us this college football season and we still have time to pocket more coin by following the sharp action on the college football lines.

It looks like the wise guys went to the well once too often in their backing of Kansas. Playing at home against their in-state rival and coming off three cover wins and a straight up victory, the Jayhawks ran out of gas against K-State, falling 38-10. The 6-points we got on the opening line didn’t do us much good. Wise guys also suffered a setback with their pick of UCF as a 21-point favorite on the opening line. The Knights were down at halftime and their second half surge didn’t quite get to the spread.

At least we didn’t go home empty-handed. That’s because underdog Georgia Southern was getting sharp action for their tilt with undefeated Appalachian State, and the Eagles won outright getting 13.5-points on the closing line, snapping the Mountaineers 13-game winning streak in the process.

The Week 11 college football schedule offers up some great games and betting opportunities, and we’ll take a look at a few matchups where sharp money has impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite college football team.

College Football Week 11 Wise Guy Picks

LSU at Alabama ( -6, 65 ), Saturday, Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET

There are several great games on the Week 11 schedule, but this is by far the biggest and the most important. With the two best teams in college squaring off for the SEC West and the inside track to the CFP, there’s going to be plenty of action on this one up until game time. We already witnessed some movement on the total signifying wise guys are jumping on this one early.

The total hit the board at 66 and visions of Joe Burrow touchdown passes were dancing in the public’s head. More than 75 percent of the early action was on the OVER, and why not considering both clubs average more than 46 points per game. Wise guys are thinking the other way and expect another hard-fought battle where points won’t be as abundant. This isn’t your momma’s LSU offense. The revamped Tigers have been special with Heisman front-runner Burrow leading the way, but the Tigers haven’t scored more than 17 points in the last nine meetings. And there’s that whole Tua Tagovailoa situation. Will he play, won’t he play, how effective will he be, yada, yada, yada. Sharps are banking on this one falling below the total.

Clemson ( -33, 53 ) at North Carolina State, Saturday, Nov. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET

Clemson is already a big favorite hitting the board -30, and they got a majority of the early action on the spread. Still, it’s unusual to see a line move 3-points unless the money is pushing. And the Tigers are getting pushed from sharps and squares in this one. It’s easy to see why. Since that near miss against UNC at the end of September, the Tigers have steamrolled anything in their way winning the last four by an average of nearly 41 points with no margin closer than 31.

Meanwhile, NC State can’t decide on a quarterback and the offense has sputtered over the last four games averaging less than 16 points. And since the Tigers have played a weak schedule they need to earn style points somehow. Beating their conference brethren handily is a way to send a message to the CFP committee.

Illinois at Michigan State ( -14, 45 ), Saturday, Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET

If Illinois and Michigan State play at the same time as the LSU-Alabama tilt will anyone watch? We’ll find out on Saturday. But the matchup will certainly be wagered on, and this one has some wise guy fingerprints all over it. Sparty opened as an 11-point favorite and every Lovie Smith fan out there, and a bunch of other folks too, jumped all over the resurgent Illini and the points.

Oddly enough we saw the line go up to MSU -14 in a clear sign that sharp action is backing the Spartans. MSU is coming off a much-needed bye after dropping three in a row SU and four straight ATS. The Spartans scored a total of 17 points in those three games. Illinois looks like a different team after upsetting Wisconsin last month, but wise guys are smarter than I am, and they’ve pocketed a lot of coin this season.

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com Special Contributor