College Football – 2019 Week 12 Wise Guy Picks

College football games are unpredictable and wagering on them can cause high blood pressure. But it sure is a lot of fun as long as those medical conditions are kept in check. And the amount of fun increases when your bets pay off. Unfortunately, our wise guys have been in a little slump lately hitting on just one of the three games we monitored over each of the last two weeks. The good news is that there are still a few weeks left in the regular season and we can recoup those losses with one profitable week. Will Week 12 be that time?

Wise guys gambled on the biggest game of the season, like a lot of people did, and it didn’t pay off. Taking the under in the LSU-Alabama matchup seemed like a shrewd play, but Tua was money on his bum ankle and Joe Burrow inched above the field in the Heisman race. I expected to see more defense and so did the wise guys, but we didn’t get it in LSU’s 46-41 win. And it looks like Michigan State is done. Sharps backed Sparty at -11 on the opening line and it still didn’t matter since they lost outright to red-hot Illinois.

We avoided an oh-fer thanks to the Clemson Tigers, who used the sharp action and a snub by the CFP selection committee in their initial rankings as motivation to maul NC State, easily covering the 34-point spread in their 55-10 victory.

There aren’t as many hefty matchups on the Week 12 college football schedule, but there are plenty of opportunities to make some coin. Let’s take a look at a few games where sharp money has impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite college football team.

College Football Week 12 Wise Guy Picks

Ohio State ( -51, 60.5 ), Saturday, Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET

We don’t often see the opening spread and total around the same number, but that’s what we had for this tilt. The Buckeyes are right up there with LSU as the best team in college football while Rutgers is ... not very good. So the Buckeyes opened as a 50.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5. There’s been little movement on the spread but the total has skyrocketed to its current 60.5. Even a high percentage of early money on the over isn’t going to push the total that much.

It looks like wise guys are expecting OSU to go off and that’s nothing new. The Buckeyes lead the nation with 51 points per game and they’ve topped the 70-point mark twice, including in last week’s win over Maryland when they cashed the over on a total of 66. Heck, Ohio State will probably surpass the total on their own again, and they might have to since Rutgers averages 14.7 points and the Buckeyes surrender just 8.6 per outing.

Massachusetts at Northwestern ( -39, 56.5 ), Saturday, Nov. 16, 12 p.m. ET

We have another oddity on the opening line for this matchup. How often do you see a 1-win team favored by 38-points? When the other team also has one win and owns the worst defense in the FBS, that’s when. It still seems like a lot of points and a majority of the public agreed, snapping up UMass on the early line. Those bettors were influenced by the offensively-challenged Wildcats, who are next to last in the FBS with an average of 11.1 points per game.

So to make things even weirder the spread went up a point to NW -39 in a sign that wise guys are expecting a bad offense to be better than a bad defense. The Cats did show signs of life last week with a 22-point outburst, which was more than they’d scored in their previous four games combined. And it looks like UMass plays with only nine defenders after allowing 63 points in consecutive games with an average of 53.1 yielded per game. UMass has also been one of the worst teams to wager on with a 1-9 ATS record.

Appalachian State ( -16, 62.5 ) at Georgia State, Saturday, Nov. 16, 7:30 p.m. ET

Can a good Sun Belt Conference team beat a below average Power 5 club? In the case of App State the answer is yes. The Mountaineers recorded their second win over a P5 squad this season, 20-15, over South Carolina last week. And they return to league play as 14.5-point chalk on the opening line against Georgia State.

The Panthers have a P5 win of their own at Tennessee earlier in the year, and they are 6-3 and playing at home, which prompted over 60 percent of the early money to back the hosts. In a typical wise guy move the line went against the public and spiked to App State -16.

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