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Decent lopsided action was being reported on the Rockies (71%) early on versus the Miami Marlins. The line on this game had moved up from -137 to -156 as a result.
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PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies RH German Marquez (2018: 14-11, 3.77 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Trevor Richards (2018: 4-9, 4.42)
Marquez, who set a franchise record with 230 strikeouts last season, has set the bar high by telling reporters that he wants to "just help the team win and try to win the World Series." The 24-year-old Venezuelan looks to get out of blocks this time around after posting a 6.26 ERA in April 2018 and a 6.75 ERA in June after a six-run, nine-hit debacle over 3 1/3 innings in an 8-5 setback against Miami. Marquez fared better in his previous meeting with the Marlins, although he still took the loss despite surrendering three runs on six hits in six frames of a 4-1 defeat on April 28.
Richards went from being a substitute teacher to starting pitcher in record time, and he managed to school Colorado in one of his better performances of his rookie season. The 25-year-old allowed one run on three hits and struck out eight over six innings in a 6-2 victory against the Rockies at Coors Field on June 23. Richards boasted a 3.75 ERA to go along with a 2-4 mark and 77 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings after the All-Star break.
Betting Tip: One thing that scares us is when action is heavy on a favorite and the line moves up dramatically as a result. One thing that may get us to pull the trigger on a dog is when action is heavy on a favorite and the line instead is drifting down.
These clubs have split wins and losses over their last ten meetings.
Three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Miami have gone UNDER the current total of 7.
The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Colorado’s last 26 road games and 18-7-2 in Miami’s last 27 home games.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
