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Below are our early observations on upcoming games and what to look at before betting these games: The Mets-Phillies and Cardinals-Brewers.
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Mets vs. Phillies
While it may be an intriguing consideration on the Mets should the public be backing Philadelphia and the line is trending downwards, there are also good reasons to avoid the Mets.
Overnight, the line had moved from Philadelphia -125 to -116.
Zach Wheeler is starting for the Mets and is coming off a win but owns a 1-1 record with a steep 7.47 ERA this season.
Despite the rough start, the Mets are 12-4 in Wheeler's last 16 starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. This could provide a good reason to back the Mets should other variables come into play.
Jake Arrieta, starting for Philadelphia, would appear to be the better pitcher at the moment. He's 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and is also coming off a victory. In both of Arrieta's wins, the Mets allowed just one run. In his loss, six runs were scored by the opposing team.
It might be wise to hone in on the total, and specifically the OVER. This is especially true if we see the total moving from 9 to 9.5 anywhere. Another Mets-Phillies game went well OVER the total Tuesday night. Philadelphia beat New York 14-3. This would make 5 of the last 7 OVERs using Wednesday's total.
The Mets also have a suspect bullpen. They had the third worst bullpens in Major League Baseball entering this week. This has helped contribute to the OVER going 12-3-1 in Mets games to date.
Cardinals vs. Brewers
The public is likely to bet heavier on the OVER, and if that is the case and the number continues trending down towards 8.5 or lower, then consider the UNDER.
More lopsided action on the Brewers and a line dropping back below -131 encouraging more action on Milwaukee could be reason to pull the trigger on St. Louis. Overnight this line was moving upwards from -125 to -131. But this is going to have to be very convincing as Milwaukee is 8-2 in the last ten meetings. Again, we need to see a dropoff from the -131. This would be an indication that the books are trying to get more action on Milwaukee.
In Summary
Consider the OVER in the Mets-Phillies game if the total moves from 9 to 9.5, even higher.
Consider the Mets if action is on Philadelphia and the oddsmakers are bringing the line down or hold around the current -116.
Consider St. Louis only if the line drops below Milwaukee -120, assuming there is more action on the Brewers.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
