Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Free Pick - September 29

Florida head coach Dan Mullen makes his return to Davis Wade Stadium in a game both schools have had circled since the beginning of the year. Both teams come into this match up with 3-1 records, both teams having their lone loss coming to Kentucky.

Mississippi State boasted a top-10 offense in the country before their game in Lexington before the Wildcats completely stifled their attack. Florida is coming off of back-to-back wins and looking to take a big step forward after years of uncharacteristically hiding in the shadows of the SEC. Mississippi State is -7.5 favorites at home in what many have dubbed the “Mullen Bowl.” 

Gators Hoping Defense Eats

Florida’s defense has silently been one of the top in the nation so far in 2018. They have already forced 14 turnovers from their opponents and have yet to play a game where they have created less than 2. They will give up some points, so they need to continue their ultra-aggressive style to try and turnover Mississippi State, who is very safe and secure with the football.

On offense, quarterback Felipe Franks has certainly taken a step forward. His 12 touchdowns on the year has already bested his total from the entire 2017 season. Franks has been secure with the ball and plays more in the “game-manager” model, which is uncharacteristic in Dan Mullen’s offenses. He will be tested mightily in this one as Mississippi State owns the nation’s 7th best defense against the passing game.

Bulldogs Look toward Veteran QB

Mississippi State ran into a landmine last weekend in Lexington against the Wildcats. The Bulldog offense was stifled for just 56 yards on the ground despite previously averaging close to 280 rushing yards per game going in to that match up. Florida has been vulnerable on the ground so far in 2018 as their defense is giving up just under 190 rushing yards per game. In other words, this is the perfect opportunity for Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldog offense to get back on track.

We expect the veteran Fitzgerald to have a huge game in this one after a lackluster performance on the road last Saturday. The Bulldogs were flagged 16 times vs. Kentucky, with four of those coming in the way of unsportsmanlike conduct fouls. Mississippi State will need to get their emotions in check prior to this game as adrenaline will be skyrocketing due to the return of Mullen to Starkville.

Pick and Prediction

Mississippi State has the better team on both sides of the ball. Florida has the better coaching and their head’s might be in a better place. Expect the Bulldogs to come out hot and heavy early on, but Florida has just enough talent and leadership to weather the early storm. Mullen will have his guys ready for sure, but being ready just will not be enough to overcome the superior talent on the other sideline.

Florida hangs around and covers the spread, but Nick Fitzgerald rises to the occasion and shows his old coach what he is missing out on. Take Florida to cover the -7.5, but the Bulldogs win this one 34-27.