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Gambling911.com takes a look at the line movements in the Thursday Night Football game between the New York Giants and Washington Football Team and what we can learn.
The Key Takeaway
The Washington Football Team should be a -6 point favorite here so there is a very distinct 3-point underlay. Ryan Fitzpatrick not playing can maybe shave a half point off this number though this component is mostly factored in.
What The Giants-WFT Line Analysis Is Telling Us
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Prior to Ryan Fitzpatrick going down books opened at Washington Football Team -5.
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Team ratings indicate the line should be WFT -6 though Fitzpatrick's injury may not fully be factored into that equation.
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The WTF rating does account for that team's performance in Week 1 with Taylor Heinicke playing a good portion of the game.
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Heinicke is set to start Thursday night against the New York Giants.
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The line on this game has dropped as low as WFT -3 at some books and had been trending down everywhere.
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Action was relatively balanced at -3.5 though it would appear early action was on Washington.
Taylor Heinicke had previously played for the Carolina Panthers
The Breakdown
Heritage Sports
Time NYG WAS
09/15 9:35 am+3 +102-3 -118
09/14 3:47 pm+3½ -118-3½ +102
09/13 9:24 pm+3 -103-3 -113
09/13 7:54 pm+3½ -113-3½ -103
09/13 7:41 pm+3½ -118-3½ +102
09/13 6:11 pm+3½ -108-3½ -108
09/13 5:06 pm+3½ -113-3½ -103
09/13 2:36 pm+3½ -108-3½ -108
09/12 7:44 pm+4 -108-4 -108
We will rally around Taylor Heinicke
— Washington Football Team (@WashingtonNFL) September 13, 2021
As you can see, there was a drop from -4.5 to -4 and then we've mostly seen the line hang around -3.5 favoring Washington through midweek.
All indications are that action was relatively balanced at -3.5 but that the early action more heavily leaned towards WFT.
BetOnline had been holding steady at -3.5 Bovada had been shifting between -3 and -3.5.
Washington should be a -6 point favorite based on the ratings but their starting quarterback situation is somewhat in limbo after losing Ryan Fitzpatrick for several weeks. The line officially opened at -5 prior to the Fitzpatrick injury. Taylor Heinicke will be starting Thursday night. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown Sunday.
Both teams come into this game 0-1 Straight Up and Against The Spread. Neither loss was a major liability to the books last week.
Washington was a home favorite against the LA Chargers. That line moved from Pick'Em to close at -2/-2.5 across the board. The books all seemed to be encouraging action on the winning (and covering) Chargers, which made some sense as WFT had around 60% of the betting volume, though the game failed to register among the top 10 bets this day.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
