How Good Were the Lines in Week 2 NFL?
It's no secret that NFL and all other sports lines are created through simple match, determining the power rating for both opponents and adding a determined home advantage. Gambling911.com began offering the feature last week, which digs deep into the creation of these lines. They are helpful for bookmakers and bettors alike, keeping in mind that they do not account for injuries, suspensions and other factors. They tend to be off by two to three weeks with major player exclusions.
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How the Week 2 Lines Fared Versus The Power Ratings
RED is a failure with the Power Ratings
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Ravens vs. Bengals - We told you that the this one should have been a PICK 'EM and Cincinnati ended up winning. Because the line was Baltimore -3, the obvious bet was Cincinnati and indeed they came through as a winner here.
Chargers vs. Bills - The Power Ratings indicate the line on this game should be San Diego -2.5 and possibly -3 because it can be rounded off, so there was a significant overlay here and this game should be avoided at all costs. San Diego was a -7.5 favorite and won by 11 points.
Dolphins vs. Jets - The Power Ratings aren't perfect. They had the Jets able to win by 3 points here and Miami ended up with the victory.
Colts vs. Redskins - We know the outcome here. Indiana as a +4.5 underdog wins outright. Let's just say "EPIC FAIL" with the power ratings as Indiana won outright and they had a 3 point underlay on this game. Big underlays like this tend to be especially unpredictable.
Panthers vs. Falcons - The line was Atlanta -5.5. The Power Ratings said Atlanta should be a -2.5 favorite. They won by 7 points.
Vikings vs. Packers - The line was a PICK'EM and with good reason. This one went into OT and ended in the second tie of the young season. The Power Ratings indicated a PICK'EM and was right on the money.
Eagles vs. Bucs - The line was Tampa Bay +3. The Power Ratings indicated Eagles should be -3. Tampa ended up winning. Epic fail with the Power Ratings. There is a lot to be said about Tampa Bay here in that Ryan Fitzpatrick's exceptional performance so far is yet to be factored into the equation.
Browns vs. Saints - The line on this game was between New Orleans -8 and -10, meaning that a win by the Saints within this range would have seen both bets on Cleveland and New Orleans winning. That didn't happen as the Saints were victorious by just three points. The Power Ratings actually indicated a victory was likely within that range (-9).
Chiefs vs. Steelers - The line had Pittsburgh -5 and we deemed too high with the Power Ratings indicating a line of just -3.5. Thus, the Chiefs would have been the most enticing play with a 1.5 overlay. This number we find to be most accurate in determining discrepancies. KC won outright.
Lions vs. 49rs - San Francisco was at -5.5. The Power Ratings indicated the number was on the money and they were victorious. BUT failed to cover as the victory was by 3 points. It's ironic as this was one of the closer wins when compared to the Power Ratings.
Cardinals vs. Rams - LA was at -12. Rams won by 34 points (Arizona scored ZERO). The Power Ratings suggested LA could win by 12. This one worked out well.
Raiders vs. Broncos - Denver was favored by -5.5 points and the Power Ratings suggested this was actually a good number. They only won by a single point, thus making this an epic fail.
Patriots vs. Jaguars - New England -2. There were injuries on both sides but the Power Ratings didn't indicate a Jags victory.
Giants vs. Cowboys - The line was Dallas -3. The win was by 7 points, and probably should have been by more. The Power Ratings indicated that Dallas should have been a winner of 5.5 points. So they were pretty accurate here.
As you can see, the Power Ratings were 6-8 in the games were evaluated. Should you bet against them? It could just be that adjustments haven't quite set in. Power Ratings are essentially useless in Week 2 due to the reliance on last season's performance, and Week 2 - even Week 3 - should not yet be an accurate barometer.
It's ironic that the Vikings-Packers line did reflect accurately for the most part considering Aaron Rodgers status was not known until minutes before Game Time.
By Week 4, the NFL Power Ratings should provide a more accurate reflection. Bookies and bettors alike need to consider the lines formed by Power Ratings as taking into account only neutral factors without any consideration for other variables.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
