MLB Betting Picks June 21 – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

California teams are dominating the NL West, but as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres get ready for another showdown series starting Monday they’re looking up at the San Francisco Giants in the division standings. Both teams enter on a roll with the Padres coming off a four-game sweep of Cincinnati while the Dodgers easily handled Arizona in a three-game set. The season series has been exciting with San Diego holding a 4-3 edge after taking three of four in LA back in April. We have a strong pitching matchup for Monday’s series opener with nine-game winner Julio Arias taking the bump for LA against Yu Darvish.

The NL West battle will air live on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego. Betting options for every game on the 2021 MLB schedule are available at BookMaker.eu.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Date and Time: Monday, June 21, 2021, 10 p.m. ET
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Probable Pitchers: Julio Urias vs. Yu Darvish
Opening MLB Odds: Los Angeles +115, San Diego -125, O/U 6.5
Dodger at Padres TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

The Dodgers are back to their rightful spot in the division winning 10 of their last 12 games to move within spitting distance of the lead while climbing a season high 17 games over .500. It looks as though they recovered nicely from a slump that saw them lose 14 of 18 games between April 18 and May 7. That skid started with a loss to the Padres and included three other defeats to their neighbor down south. The Dodgers plated nine runs in each of the last two games against Arizona and they boast one of the top offenses in MLB averaging 5.2 runs per outing. Their pitching again has been spectacular with the rotation compiling the most quality starts and the entire staff pitching to a 3.15 ERA. Still, the Dodgers are such big favorites in most of their games that they are bleeding money down 324 units on the moneyline.

Needing something to get their swagger back ahead of this important series, the Padres got it in the form of the Reds. Losers in 13 of 17 games before the Cincinnati series, San Diego was scuffling on the offensive end scoring two runs or less in 10 of those games. As quickly as they went into the funk the Padres busted out. They scored 24 runs in the four games cashing the OVER in three of them. While the offense has been inconsistent the pitching remains solid boasting the best staff ERA in baseball at 3.08.

Probable Pitchers

The Dodgers needed Julio Urias (9-2, 3.54 ERA) more than ever to stabilize the rotation after Dustin May was lost for the year. In his first season as a full-time starter he’s more than delivered. Urias is tied for the NL lead in wins building off his incredible 2020 postseason when he went 4-0 with a microscopic 1.17 ERA. The Dodgers won his last three starts and they are 11-3 in all games started by Urias. In six of his 14 starts he’s allowed one run or less while tossing at least 5.0 frames.

It’s not easy to mount a big inning against Urias. Opponents are hitting .228 against him and his control is impeccable. Urias has issued only 13 walks while fanning 90 over 84.0 innings. He’s faced the Padres eight times in his career making three starts pitching to a 2.08 ERA. He’ll be facing San Diego for the first time this season.

He may be in a slump, but a Yu Darvish (6-2, 2.57 ERA) slump is unlike that of any other pitcher. The Padres won 11 of Darvish’s first 12 starts when the righty pitched to a 2.28 ERA. The only setback in that span was to the Dodgers, 2-0, with Darvish surrendering just one hit and one run over 7.0 innings. Last time out he yielded six hits and four runs in 5.0 innings at Colorado and has compiled a 4.50 ERA in his last two outings.

Overall, Darvish has been just what the Padres expected when trading for him during the offseason. He was runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting last season and has continued to pitch well in his new city. He’s allowed just 59 hits over 84 innings with opponents hitting .196 against him. His control has been just as good with 21 walks while sporting an impressive 0.95 WHIP. Darvish has been even better at Petco going 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA over nine starts.

Bet Dodgers at Padres at BookMaker.eu

Runs might be harder to come by for the Pads with Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined. And oddsmakers took note setting the total at 6.5, matching the lowest in any game between the teams. Two strong starters and solid bullpens have me leaning toward the UNDER in what should be another close hard-fought game between division rivals.

MLB Score Prediction: Padres 3, Dodgers 2

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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