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The Mets-Phillies Game 3 Wednesday featured an early line of Philadelphia -133, already falling ahead of midnight to -113. The total was sitting on the 9. This is a 1 pm EST game.
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What to Watch For
If the public is betting heavy on Philadelphia and the line continues trending downward, it may be a good idea to consider a bet on the Mets.
Expected Starting Pitchers
Zack Wheeler NYM (1-1, 7.47) vs. Jake Arrieta PHI (2-1, 2.25)
Wheeler is coming off a win following a loss and no-decision. The Mets allowed just two runs in Wheeler's last start. They allowed 12 and 6 in his previous two.
The Mets could prove to be a dangerous play under this scenario, keeping in mind that Wheeler has a 7.47 ERA compared to Arrieta's 2.25 ERA.
Then again, the Mets are 12-4 in Wheeler's last 16 starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Instead, it might be wise to hone in on the total, and specifically the OVER. This is especially true if we see the total moving from 9 to 9.5 anywhere. Another Mets-Phillies game went well OVER the total Tuesday night. Philadelphia beat New York 14-3. This would make 5 of the last 7 OVERs using Wednesday's total.
The Mets also have a suspect bullpen. They had the third worst bullpens in Major League Baseball entering this week. This has helped contribute to the OVER going 12-3-1 in Mets games to date.
Arrieta, we should note, is also coming off a win his last start.
The Phillies are 2-5 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
