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New Orleans got a huge boost with last week’s surprising shutout win over Tom Brady and the Bucs, but in order to keep their faint postseason hopes alive the Saints will need a rookie QB getting his first NFL action to lead them to a win over the red-hot Dolphins in Monday Night Football.
The Saints opened as a 3-point home favorite in tonight’s game with an over/under of 41, but with the Saints being forced to start their fifth quarterback of the season because of injuries and COVID-19 protocols, the Dolphins are now a 2.5-point favorite, with a total of 37 at Wager6.ag, where you can receive a 200% Cash Bonus.
Ian Book, a rookie out of Notre Dame, gets the start for New Orleans, but we think the oddsmakers have overreacted in dropping this total to a NFL season-low of 37. The Saints have been a “run-first” offense all season with the fifth-most rushing attempts of any team in the NFL. So, it’s not like Sean Payton is going to ask the youngster to go out there and win the game with his arm. But if and when Book is forced to throw, he’s bound to make mistakes, and those mistakes could very well lead to easy points or advantageous field position for Miami.
As for Miami, the team comes to the Big Easy riding a six-game winning streak and QB Tua Tagovailoa is playing the best football of his pro career. Over the last four weeks, Tua has completed 75% of his passes with seven TD passes and three interceptions and, as a result, the Fins have averaged 27 points per game. Tonight, the Dolphins face the best defense they have seen all season, but since the Saints rank No. 1 in the league in rushing yards allowed per attempt, look for Miami to throw the ball early and often, which is always a friend to the over.
The bottom line here is that with a total this low, all we need is one special teams big play or a pick-6 by one of these opportunistic defenses and the “over” will be well on its way. So, let’s take advantage of a deflated number and play over 37 points tonight on the fast track of the Superdome in New Orleans.
- Tommy D, Gambling911.com Senior Sports Handicapper
