NBA Basketball Betting: The Biggest Money Losers as of November 12, 2019
We’ve looked at the most profitable teams to date in the early going of the NBA basketball season and now we’ll look at the bottom of the barrel. These teams have lost the most money for their ‘financial backers’ although some have a winning straight up record. In the next few days we’ll also look at the teams that have played the most games ‘Over’ and ‘Under’ the total.
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THE BIGGEST MONEY LOSERS IN NBA BASKETBALL BETTING AS OF 11/11/19
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-6.8 UNITS)
The San Antonio Spurs were expected to have a ‘down year’ this season but to date they’re a reasonable 5-5 SU. This has them in 9th place in the Western Conference just one game out of the final playoff spot. They’re starting the same way they finished last year as they’re competitive at home and not so much on the road. They’re 4-3 SU at home and 1-2 away. From a pointspread standpoint, however, they’ve been an unmitigated disaster. Heading into Monday night’s action the Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies were tied for the biggest money loser of the NBA season. As luck would have it, the teams played each other in San Antonio with the Grizzlies winning 113-109 as +10.5 road underdogs giving the Spurs sole possession of the ‘biggest money burner’ honorific. San Antonio is now 2-8 ATS losing -6.8 units. They’ve been a brutal 1-6 ATS at home which is a cover percentage of just 14.2%. They’re 2-6 ATS as a favorite (25%) and the biggest issue is obvious just by taking a look at the screen for tonight’s game—they’re significantly overpriced at home likely due to their ‘name’ and reputation. Further validating this concept is the fact that they’re 4-1 SU at home but just 1-4 ATS. The two games they’ve covered this season came at Golden State on November 1 when they beat the injury depleted Warriors 127-1110 as -7 road favorites and on November 7 against Oklahoma City when they beat the Thunder 121-112 as -4.5 home chalk. At some point, the line valuation of the Spurs at home will correct itself but it probably won’t happen immediately. On the road, the Spurs are vulnerable to just about any team and still should be facing inflated prices—particularly against opponents with losing records. Bottom line is that San Antonio should remain a go against in most situations for the immediate future.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (-4.7 UNITS)
The Grizzlies have covered a woeful 30% of their games but at least they come about it honestly. They’re a lousy team both SU and ATS with a 3-7 record in both. What’s interesting about the Grizzlies is that the marketplace has them correctly pegged as a lousy team and has since the start of the season. They’ve been an underdog in every game this season and have underachieved their lowly expectations. The Grizzlies also exhibit a trait that I’ve always looked for in ‘go against’ underdogs—they haven’t covered a game they’ve lost SU all season. Their 3 covers are also their 3 outright wins. The kneejerk psychology here is that they’re a team that loses focus if they’re not in a position to compete for the win late. Don’t expect them to dig themselves out from a large deficit or to pull off a ‘backdoor’ cover. Tonight’s win at San Antonio was their first SU and ATS win of the season. The teams they’ve beat this year: Brooklyn and Minnesota at home and San Antonio on the road. These teams are all right around .500 on the year which leads me to believe that they’ll struggle this season against elite teams but also against teams they perceive as ‘inferior’. Linesmakers can adjust the prices on the Grizzlies’ games to make them more competitive against the number but they can’t do anything for the mindset of this team which means they should be a good ‘go against’ for the near future.
HOUSTON ROCKETS (-4.6 UNITS)
The current incarnation of the Houston Rockets never got the memo that even if you do have dominant superstars you actually need to build a team around them to compete for a championship. It doesn’t matter how many points James Harden gets every night or how many triple doubles Russell Westbrook gets on the season. The Rockets just don’t have enough of a team around them to do anything in the playoffs. Like their superstars, some of Houston’s statistical profiles look impressive until you dig a bit deeper. For example, the Rockets are 3-0 against divisional rivals and 5-0 against Western Conference opponents. That sounds great until you look at the game log and see that they’ve gone 3-0 against Southwest Division rivals Memphis and New Orleans (twice). They’ve also beaten Golden State and Oklahoma City to give them a 5-0 record against the West. They’re 7-3 SU on the year and that also looks far less impressive when you note that they’ve played only 2 teams that are currently above .500. They lost 117-111 at home against Milwaukee on opening night as a -1.5 point favorite and they lost at Miami on November 3 129-100. For some reason they were a -3 point road favorite despite the fact that Miami had lost only once at the time. The Rockets could be a ‘go against’ perfect storm this year as the NBA and their media supplicants want us to believe that they’re a championship contender based on the individual performances of Harden and Westbrook. They’ve been favored in every game this season and that is likely continue as long as they keep beating the NBA’s losing teams and Harden/Westbrook keep padding their stat line. There will be plenty of games like the one they played at New Orleans tonight where Houston beat the Pelicans 122-116 but failed to cover as -7.5 road favorites. They’ll also be a go against when they play the league’s elite. The league’s hype machine should keep the Rockets’ individual game lines inflated for the foreseeable future.
