NFL Regular Season Recap: Sportsbook Losses Bookies Can Learn From
We’re just about ready to close the books on the NFL Regular Season. After next Sunday, we head directly into the Wildcard Round.
Hopefully, online bookies made a profit this NFL Season. As always, there are also a few lessons to learn.
NFL Regular Season: Top 4 Lessons
Check out below for 4 such lessons. If you were affected by these lessons, it’s time to upgrade to a premium sportsbook solution.
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1. Consider Using the Layoff Account on NFL Totals
On Nov. 19, the Kansas City Chiefs visited the Los Angeles Rams. Even though the total opened at 59.5 and jumped up 5 full points to 65.5, no action went the other way.
Most bookies know that Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams played to a 54-51 final score.
Sportsbooks lost a ton of money because they couldn’t offset any of the dollars wagered over the total.
That’s why the first lesson is for pay per head agents to use their layoff accounts on total bets as well as against the spread bets.
2. Straight up wins don’t translate to NFL ATS victories
In the case of the New Orleans Saints, SU wins did translate to ATS wins. The Saints are 10-4 before their Week 16 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But, for many other teams, SU victories haven’t translated into ATS wins:
Kansas City Chiefs 11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS
L.A. Rams 11-3 SU, 5-8-1 ATS
Houston Texans 10-4 SU, 6-7-1 ATS
When it comes time to use the layoff account, really consider if you must. Agents could have made a ton of dollars on the Chiefs, Rams, and Texans because each week they were likely over bet.
3. Sell the NFL Rumor, Buy the NFL News
One of the hottest teams this preseason were the Oakland Raiders. New coach Jon Gruden was supposed to take the Raiders to the playoffs. Instead, Oakland’s on it’s way to the second pick in the NFL Draft. Yes, the Raiders are that bad.
By sell the news, we mean bookies could have made a killing on future bets on Oakland. The Raiders offered around +2000 odds to win the Super Bowl before the season started.
Instead of setting up max betting limits, agents could have allowed as many wagers as possible on the terrible team.
4. When in Doubt, Stick to Basic Bookmaking Rules
There were plenty of opportunities to shun the layoff account and make profit beyond the vig this NFL Regular Season. However, always putting the layoff account aside leads to disaster.
It’s important to remember to always stick to basic bookmaking rules like using the layoff account and setting max betting limits on moneylines. Only go off script, only break the rules, when it’s low risk.
If the risk is too high, stick to the rules and use your per head sportsbook software to ensure profit.
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