NFL Betting – Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

The Detroit Lions have been a nice surprise this season, and if not for a loss to Kansas City two weeks ago they’d be the talk of the NFL. The Lions entered their bye following a crushing 34-30 defeat, their first of the season. They return from the off week with a big test at hand in a critical NFC North matchup with the Green Bay Packers. The Lions can take over the top spot in the division with a win, and they enter having won the last four meetings against their division rival covering the closing line each time. The Pack improved to 4-1 SU and ATS with their upset of Dallas last week and the current NFL betting line has them as 4-point favorite.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Date and Time: Monday, October 14, 2019, 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Opening NFL Odds: Green Bay -6.5, O/U 46.5

Lions at Packers TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

There has been movement on the line showing the volatile nature of a division matchup with first place at stake. It is early and the team’s play again later in the year, but beating division foes is important no matter when the game pops up on the schedule. The Packers opened as a 6.5-point favorite and there was some buy back on the part of the visitors, moving the line to Green Bay -4.5 before eventually settling at -4. The total surfaced at 46.5 and spiked as high as 48 before under money moved the number down several points. It currently sits at 46.

Detroit Lions

With an extra week to stew over a tough-luck loss to Kansas City, Detroit should be anxious to get back on the field. Even with the setback the Lions showed they can hang with the best the NFL has to offer. Holding a lead into the final minute, the Chiefs proved why they are one of the best with a nice little come-from-behind triumph, dropping the Lions to 2-1-1 SU on the year. Detroit was able to cover the 7.5-point line, their third straight cover win. The Lions also moved to 3-0 ATS when getting points on the NFL betting line.

One concern for the Lions is their defense, which is odd since that’s supposed to be Matt Patricia’s area of expertise. I guess if you don’t have the players it doesn’t matter how good of a coach you are. They held Patrick Mahomes without a touchdown pass, which was a positive. However, the Lions yielded 315 yards through the air, 438 total yards and couldn’t make a stop on the game-winning drive allowing the Chiefs to march 79 yards.

The bye week has been beneficial for the Lions, who are 6-1 SU and ATS in games immediately afterwards. They beat Miami, 31-21, last year after the bye and also have a win at Green Bay during that stretch. The Lions upset the Packers 18-16 as a 10.5-point dog in 2015.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers had a nice response to their first loss of the year, jumping ahead of Dallas 31-3 last week before holding on for the 34-24 victory. For the second straight week the defense gave up chunks of yardage, but there should be an asterisk next to last week’s score. The Packers played a lot of prevent schemes after getting ahead in order for the clock to run, and the Cowboys picked up most of their stats during that time.

After losing at home to the Eagles two weeks ago and suffering their first ATS loss in the process, the Packers jumped all over the Boys. Surprisingly, the run game was the difference. Aaron Jones picked up the slack with top receiving target Davante Adams out of the lineup. Jones ran for 107 yards and four touchdowns and his eight rushing scores top the NFL. Rodgers was efficient, but he didn’t need to carry the team and that balance is something the Packers will look to achieve on Monday night.

The balance has allowed the Packers to pick up the offensive production the last few games. They’ve scored at least 27 in each of their last three outings and cashed the over in every game. Playing on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field has been advantageous to the Packers, who are 15-5 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5-points or less.

Bet Lions at Packers at BookMaker.eu

The winning team has scored at least 30 points in each of the last six meetings and the over is 6-1 in the last seven, and there isn’t much to tell us otherwise for this one. The Packers are humming behind a close-to-healthy Rodgers, and the Lions have a top-10 offense. I expect to see some points and I also see Green Bay’s defense playing a little tighter in a game that won’t be a runaway.

NFL Score Prediction: Green Bay 30, Detroit 23

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- This article courtesy of Phil Simon of Bookmaker.eu