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Understanding how NFL bettors approach the bye week helps bookies know what per head tools to use to manage action on NFL bye week bettors.
Check out what bookies must know about bye week NFL betting.
The Scoop on NFL Bye Week Betting
Wagering on a team after their bye used to be profitable. From 2003 to 2009, teams coming off a bye covered 57.1% more than teams not coming off a bye. That’s changed in recent years.
Since 2009, teams coming off a bye have covered at only 50.6% compared to teams not coming off a bye.
What does this tell per head agents? A few things.
1. Vegas odds makers have adjusted off bye betting lines
Odds makers have adjusted betting lines to reflect the NFL bye week advantage so that there’s no longer any bye week advantage.
2. NFL coaches approach the bye week differently than other NFL coaches
Not all teams excel off the bye because NFL coaches don’t approach the bye the same way. Some coaches use the bye to prepare for the team they face the week after a bye.
Other coaches don’t change their strategies at all. Instead, they give their players extra rest off the bye.
Still, other coaches consider making player personnel changes after the bye. What’s the point of still fighting for the season when your bye’s in Week 12 and you’re at 2-9?
3. A team coming off a bye only affects that team
So, you’re the Bills coming off your bye and now you face the New England Patriots in Foxborough where the Pats have covered something like 6 straight against the Buffalo Bills.
Does it really matter so much that you’re playing off your bye?
It’s important that pay per head agents understand the NFL bye week betting strategy, but it’s more important that bookies understand this: they want their players betting teams off bye weeks!
Any time NFL handicappers study a single factor to determine on which team they wager, like whether the team battles off a bye, the advantage goes to bookies.
Here’s an example:
Chicago battled Miami off their bye. Over 70% believed the Bears at -3 would cover. The game took place in Miami. Since Chicago entered the game off their bye, more emphasis was placed on Chicago’s extra week of rest than Miami playing at home.
Miami changed starting quarterbacks due to an injury about an hour and a half before the game. The line plummeted to Chicago -7. What happened? Miami beat Chicago by 3 points in overtime.
So many factors go into whether a team wins, much less covers the spread, that if NFL bettors only stick to one or two of those factors, they’ll lose way more than they win.
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