NHL Hockey Betting: Top NHL 'Over" Teams as of November 1, 2019
This is the last installment in our rundown of NHL teams profit and loss tendencies as well as their ‘Over’ and ‘Under’ performance. We hit the ‘Under’ teams the last time out and now we’ll look at teams that have gone ‘Over’ the most. Stats and records are current as of 10/31/19:
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NHL HOCKEY BETTING TOP ‘OVER’ TEAMS AS OF 10/31/19
WASHINGTON CAPITALS 11 OVER 4 UNDER 0 PUSH
The Capitals’ stats are complete through the end of action on Friday, November 1. They just beat Buffalo 6-1 and go ‘Over’ for the 11th time in 15 games. This one was close, however, as the total was set at 6.5. The ‘Over’ in Friday’s win over the Sabres makes it 9 straight games ‘Over’ as well as 11 of 12. The Caps’ totals have been 6.5 for the past two games and they’ll likely stay there given the previously noted stats. Washington the #3 goals per game team in the NHL (3.79) and there’s no reason that they can’t keep scoring at or near that clip. They finished the 2018-2019 season #5 in goals scored per game with 3.34 per. One difference this season is that the Caps haven’t been particularly good on defense in the early going ranking #19 in goals against per game with 3.29. They’ve been excellent on special teams ranking #6 on the penalty kill (85.2%) and #5-T on the power play (25.5%). They’ve also now got the best record in hockey at 10-2-3 for 23 points and are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. You have to think that Braden Holtby’s goals against average will come down from the current 3.55 with a .888 save percentage. Backup Ilya Samsonov has been decent in his 5 starts with a 2.46 goals against average. The market looks to have the Capitals pegged and if they get some improved play in net combined with 6.5 totals on the board they could run off a number of ‘Unders’.
FLORIDA PANTHERS 9 OVER 3 UNDER 1 PUSH
Florida has been ‘consistently inconsistent’ in the early days of Joel Quenneville’s tenure at the helm. After losing four of their first five (two shootout losses) they’ve pretty much alternated wins and losses ever since. They’ve not lost two in a row but they’ve won two in a row only once. The offense has been inconsistent as has the defense, particularly the play of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Panthers are currently #6-T in goals scored per game with 3.54 but are #29 in goals against per game with 3.69. They’re getting a lot of shots on goal—34.3, fourth in the league—but they’ve done a good job limiting opponent shots on net. At 30 shots per game against they’re the 9th best in the league in this statistical category. Their poor goals per game is pretty much all on Bobrovsky—the former Vezina Trophy winner has a 3.71 goals against average with a .873 save percentage. Backup Sam Monternbeault has been decent in his 4 appearances with a 1-1-1 record, a 2.81 goals against average and a .905 save percentage. You have to think that Bobrovsky will round into form sooner rather than later. He had a tendency to start slow during his run in Columbus so this is nothing new. Once he starts playing up to his ability the Panthers won’t be an automatic ‘Over’. For now, they’ve gone ‘Over’ in four straight and 6 of their last 8.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS 9 OVER 4 UNDER 0 PUSH
The Predators made it a goal in the off season to beef up their offense. So far, mission accomplished. Nashville leads the NHL scoring 4.08 goals per game. On the other end of the ice, the Preds started the season giving up a lot of goals but they’ve improved of late and are now tied for #13 in fewest goals against per game. Pekka Rinne has been solid—he’s yet to lose in regulation at 7-0-2 and he’s got a 2.19 goals against average and a .920 save percentage with 2 shutouts. Backup Jusse Saros, on the other hand, has been uncharacteristically bad with a record of 1-3-0, a 3.99 goals against average and a .872 save percentage. Look for both goals scored per game and goals against per game to start moving downward. In fact, in the near term I’d be looking ‘Under’ before ‘Over’ with the Predators. They ripped off 7 straight ‘Over’ verdicts as well as 8 in their first 9 games. They’ve since gone ‘Under’ in 4 of their last 6.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 9 OVER 4 UNDER 1 PUSH
Pretty simple analysis for the Maple Leafs—they’ve been scoring goals and playing poorly on defense. That’s why they’re 6-5-3 and 5 points off the pace in the Atlantic Division. Leafs have the #8 goals per game in the NHL (3.50 per) and the #22 goals against per game (3.43 per). The power play has been middle of the road while the penalty kill has struggled and is currently ranked #23 (77.1%). Leafs have 7 OV, 2 UN and a push in their last 10 games with ‘Over’ results in 5 of their last 7. Toronto #21 in shots allowed per game (32.8) and #11 in shots for per game (32.6). Goaltending has been abysmal, particularly backup Michael Hutchinson who is 0-3-1 with a 4.26 goals against average and a .885 save percentage. Frederik Andersen has been better but not great at 6-2-2 with a 3.03 goals against average and .901 save percentage. Statistically, this might be who the Leafs are—a high octane offense with a porous defense that has to outscore opponents to win. It’s not like the market isn’t aware of this—9 of Toronto’s last 10 totals have been 6.5—but they keep finding a way to go ‘Over’. Could a 7 total be on the horizon?
