New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Week 1 Prop Bets
The Miami Dolphins were coming in as a -3.5 favorite on Tuesday following a trend from -2.5. New England (16) had a power rating of 20.75, Miami (19) had a power rating of 19.84. Tack on the home field advantage we get a line of -1.5 to -2. None of the books have been on the number 2. The line movement is occurring at 2.5 or higher and above the line we come up with, indicating a half point or greater overlay and the potential for New England to cover the spread.
Betting Line Movements and Action Report
Early Line Movement (Within 48 hours of Release) - None
Recreational Books Trending (Tuesday September 6) -3 to -3.5.
Sharp Books Trending (Tuesday September 6) -3 to -3.5.
Spread Action (Tuesday September 6) Miami -3.5 65%.
Current Lean Tuesday: Patriots +3.5
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Across the board, the trend is for the line to be moving from Dolphins -2.5 in August to -3 and -3.5 the first few days of September leading up to this game. Sagarin gives us a line of Miami -2 tops.
As of Tuesday, none of the books had hit the number -4.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Hot Trends
- Patriots are 2-8 Against The Spread in their last 10 meetings in Miami.
- Home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
- Two of the last ten games in this series have been decided by 2 or fewer points.
- Three of the last ten games in this series have been decided by 3 or fewer points.
- Miami has won six of the last ten games in this series.
- Since 2018, the Dolphins have been favorites 18 times, winning all but 5 of those (72.2%).
Injuries and Other News
“I expect everybody that can be ready to go will be ready to go,” Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. “I know everybody’s working really hard to be a hundred percent healthy and to be ready for the game. Players, coaches, staff, everybody, so, we’ll see how that develops, what kind of condition [the players] are in. I don’t know if they’ll be able to play, but they’re working hard to be there … We’ll just have to take it day-by-day on everybody and see where they’re at.”
Prop Bets for the Patriots vs. Dolphins Game
First To Score
Patriots -110
Dolphins -120
First Scoring Play Of The Game
Patriots TD +225
Patriots FG +330
Patriots Any Other Score +5500
Dolphins TD +180
Dolphins FG +350
Dolphins Any Other Score
Longest TD in the Game
Over 40½ Yards-115
Under 40½ Yards-115
Double Result
Patriots/Patriots +240
Patriots/Tie +4000
Patriots/Dolphins +550
Tie/Patriots +2000
Tie/Tie +4500
Tie/Dolphins +1600
Dolphins/Patriots +700
Dolphins/Tie +4000
Dolphins/Dolphins +120
Winning Margin
Patriots to win by 1-6 pts +350
Patriots to win by 7-12 pts +650
Patriots to win by 13-18 pts +1100
Patriots to win by 19-24 pts +2200
Patriots to win by 25-30 pts +4000
Patriots to win by 31-36 pts +6000
Patriots to win by 37-42 pts +10000
Patriots to win by 43 or More pts +11000
Dolphins to win by 1-6 pts +300
Dolphins to win by 7-12 pts +475
Dolphins to win by 13-18 pts +700
Dolphins to win by 19-24 pts +1100
Dolphins to win by 25-30 pts +2000
Dolphins to win by 31-36 pts +3000
Dolphins to win by 37-42 pts +5000
Dolphins to win by 43 or More pts +6600
Tie +5000
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
