New York Special Election Upset Catches Attention of Oddsmakers: Ripple Effect Felt in Betting Market
A massive upset in New York’s ‘bellwether’ 19th Congressional District last night has created a ripple in the political odds markets, as reported by BetOnline oddsmakers Wednesday morning.
Democrat Pat Ryan pulled off the upset against Republican incumbent Marcus Molinaro in the special election. Ryan started with 3-1 odds in the race, but he was bet down nearly to even money prior to Tuesday. Ryan had made abortion and a woman's right to choose the centerpiece of his campaign.
While New York may be among the blueist states in the nation, the 19th Congressional District is among the swingiest (yes, that's a word).
After voting for Democrat Barack Obama for President, the district went for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. The district had been represented by Democrat Antonio Delgado before he departed to assume the role of New York’s lieutenant governor back in May.
Tuesday night's result in New York and the continuation of bettors backing various Democrat mid-term targets has shifted odds toward the Dems for the House of Representatives majority, Senate control and other upcoming Senate races.
In Florida, Val Demings received better than 80% of the vote in her Democratic primary and a recent poll showed her four points ahead of incumbent GOP Senator Marco Rubio. Demings odds to be the next Florida Senator have gone from 8-1 to 6-1, still paying out $60 on a $10 bet.
House of Representatives Majority
Republicans: -350 (opened at -800 and was -450 Monday)
Democrats: +225 (opened at +425 and was +275 Monday)
Senate Control
Republicans: +170 (peaked at -325)
Democrats: -250 (peaked at +250 so odds have completely swung to the other party)
Key Senate Races:
Arizona
Kelly (D): -325 (peak of +155)
Masters (R): +215
Pennsylvania
Fetterman (D): -550 (peak of +115)
Oz (R): +325
Wisconsin
Johnson (R): -150
Barnes (D): +110 (peak of +240)
Nevada
Cortez-Masto (D): -150 (peak of +200)
Laxalt (R): +110
Ohio
Vance (R): -300
Ryan (D): +200 (peak of +700)
North Carolina
Budd (R): -275
Beasley (D): +185 (peak of +550)
Georgia
Warnock (D): -200 (peak of +185)
Walker (R): +150
Florida
Rubio (R): -1500
Demings (D): +600 (peak of +800)
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
