PGA Tour Picks – TOUR Championship Odds
The tumultuous PGA Tour season comes to end this week at the TOUR Championship with the top 30 golfers in the FedExCup standings fighting it out for the $15 million first-place prize. There is one hitch, however. Thanks to racking up the most points over the course of the season, Dustin Johnson gets a head start over the field. DJ takes a 2-shot lead over second-place Jon Rahm before the field even hits the first tee box for Friday’s first round at iconic East Lake Golf Club. Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600)
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Taking the handicap into effect, it isn’t surprising to see Johnson as the betting favorite. This is the second season the format has been used with Rory McIlroy charging to the title last season making up five shots. PGA Championship winner Collin Morikawa slots into the fifth position this year looking to make it two in a row for the No. 5 golfer. The staggered leaderboard start has players ranked 26-30 at even-par, 10-shots off the pace. That’s a lot of ground to make up. For more traditional bettors there’s a market for the straight up 72-hole winner. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of updated odds and matchups when you’re ready to place a wager.
TOUR Championship
Dates: Friday, September 4 – Monday, September 7, 2020
Location: East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, GA
Opening PGA Tour Odds: Jon Rahm +775
TOUR Championship TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
Odds Analysis
Johnson would be among the favorites even he wasn’t given a head start on the field. Stake the OWGR No. 1 a 2-shot advantage and it’s a no-brainer. The odds aren’t favorable at just +195 and we saw Justin Thomas flop from the top-spot last year, so nothing is guaranteed. But DJ has been beaten by only two golfers in his last three starts and he wasn’t even among the top 100 in the standings when the season resumed. I guess you could say he’s on a roll.
If you want to talk about momentum let’s mention Rahm. That putt last week for victory over DJ in a playoff is one that will be talked about for a long time. And the Spaniard has picked up the pace after a putrid opening to the restart. Rahm has a pair of victories in his last five starts along with a T6 and T13. He’s won on tough courses Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields and gets another this week.
We’ve seen this staggered scoring system just once, that being at this joint last year. In that one McIlroy emerged from the No. 5 position to lead the field shooting 13-under, combined with his -5 starting number he ended -18, four-shots better than Xander Schauffele. The precedent has been set for Morikawa, who enters with odds of +2385. The only Major winner of the season could hold value if he’s able to snap out of his Harding Park hangover. Morikawa missed the cut at The Northern Trust in his first post-PGA Championship start before banging out a top-20 at the BMW.
East Lake isn’t the ideal course for making up strokes, which is why players at a bigger shot disadvantage have larger odds. It stretches to 7,346 yards at par 70 with narrow fairways putting an emphasis on accuracy. Hit the fairways with a strong short game and you’ll be just fine. Over the last 12 editions winning scores ranged between -7 and -13.
Odds to Win TOUR Championship at BookMaker.eu
Dustin Johnson +195
Jon Rahm +205
Justin Thomas +652
Webb Simpson +1185
Collin Morikawa +2385
Rory McIlroy +2442
Bryson DeChambeau +2902
Xander Schauffele +3424
Daniel Berger +3550
Hideki Matsuyama +4150
Harris English +7550
We still don’t know a lot about the staggered leaderboard format since it’s been used just the one time. The top two players in the field battled it out last week showing each other up with their putting ability before Rahm’s 66-foot dagger putt allowed him to escape with the playoff win. That wouldn’t have been enough under this week’s format since he’s starting two shots back of DJ.
It’s hard not to like Johnson after his display the last month. He’s the hottest player coming in with a T2 at the PGA Championship followed by a win at The Northern Trust and last week’s playoff setback. He’s the best in the playoffs in strokes gained: tee to green and I doubt he’ll feel any pressure being the top seed.
There are great golfers with lofty odds who have the potential to break out at any time. Morikawa is one of them in a spot that produced last year’s winner. Bryson DeChambeau can take advantage of East Lake with his booming drives and he proved last year he can master the layout.
Starting as the eighth-seed last year, Xander Schauffele made up enough strokes to finish as runner-up. He’s been a consistent player all year with 15 top-25 finishes in 17 starts. His numbers at East Lake are impressive as well scoring par or better in all 12 rounds.
TOUR Championship Pick: Dustin Johnson
Top -5 Lock: Collin Morikawa
Top-10 Lock: Xander Schauffele
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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com
