PGA Tour Picks – U.S. Open Odds 2020

With six major championships and a record number of tournaments on the PGA Tour this season, I guess we can thank COVID for something. Taking place three months after its originally planned date the 120th U.S. Open kicks off the barrage of big-time events starting Thursday from famed Winged Foot Golf Club. Majors bring out the best players in the world and a plethora of wagering opportunities. This week is no different. You know it’s a big deal when Tiger Woods takes to the course and you can bet there will be plenty of action on the Big Cat even though he’s struggled in recent events.  Bookmaker.eu is offering a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600)

Two players not struggling are Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson. Not surprisingly they are positioned at the top of the odds board. Rahm has a pair of victories in his last six starts and emerged as the betting favorite, slightly ahead of freshly-minted FedExCup champion Johnson. They are the only players at 10/1 or shorter among the 144 entrants. Gary Woodland ended Brooks Koepka’s U.S. Open win streak at two with a win at Pebble Beach last year. Woodland is further down the odds list while Koepka opted out. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of updated odds and matchups when you’re ready to place a wager.

2020 U.S. Open
Dates: Thursday, September 17 - Sunday, September 20, 2020
Location: Winged Foot Golf Club, Mamaroneck, NY
Opening PGA Tour Odds: Jon Rahm +850
U.S. Open TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC

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Odds Analysis

It’s not unusual to see the two hottest golfers on the planet listed as the favorites. It is strange to see other big names with favorable prices. It’s always a crap shoot when the best players in the world get together and DJ won’t have a shot advantage like he did at the TOUR Championship.

Only two players have beaten Johnson in his past four tournaments and three victories since the end of June moved him from outside the top-100 in the FedExCup standings to first. He claimed the $15 million prize at the season-ending TOUR Championship, won The Northern Trust and lost to Rahm in a playoff at the BMW during his playoff run. I guess greatness runs in the family.

And speaking of Rahm his wins at the Memorial and BMW came on the toughest course setups since the restart, which bodes well for his chances at Winged Foot. The Spaniard has yet to win a major but enters on a run of strong form with a solo sixth and a T4 to go along with his titles in his last six starts.

Of course it’s not a major without Tiger, right? The most polarizing figure on Tour opened at +4050, which is sure to get him some action. However, he’s finished outside the top-35 in four starts since the lockdown lifted and missed the TOUR Championship for a second straight season. He has 16 major championships on the resume and is looking for his record 83rd Tour win.

The West Course at Winged Foot plays host to its sixth U.S. Open and first since 2006 when Geoff Ogilvy captured the title at 5-over. That’s right ... FIVE OVER! In the previous five Opens played here the winning score was over par four times. It shows you just how difficult the layout is. There were some modifications, especially to the greens that were enlarged a few years ago. Still, it’s going to be a war of attrition.

Odds to Win U.S. Open at BookMaker.eu

Jon Rahm +850
Dustin Johnson +894
Rory McIlroy +1215
Justin Thomas +1415
Xander Schauffele +1415
Collin Morikawa +1815
Bryson Dechambeau +2054
Webb Simpson +2558
Patrick Cantlay +2864
Patrick Reed +2951
Daniel Berger +3066
Hideki Matsuyama +3267
Tommy Fleetwood +3267
Tony Finau +3267
Jason Day +3570
Tyrrell Hatton +4050
Tiger Woods +4050
Adam Scott +4250

There are a few players competing who were around back in 2006. Woods was in his prime and succumbed to Winged Foot, missing the cut. So did Matt Kuchar. Try as he might, one player who can’t forget the 2006 U.S. Open is Mickelson, whose famous meltdown cost him the title. Lefty double-bogeyed the 72nd hole and lost by one stroke. Six times during his career Mickelson finished as runner-up at the U.S. Open and he’s running out of chances to complete the career Grand Slam.

Current form and stats say stay away from Mickelson, but if you’re looking for an underdog who has demons to exorcise at this lot, Lefty is your guy. Sometimes that’s the only motivation needed.

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There are a number of quality golfers at a good price right behind the favorites. Collin Morikawa has seen his odds drop recently since he still appears to be suffering from a hangover after winning the PGA Championship. Still, that victory vaulted the youngster to elite status among the field. Xander Schauffele is one of the best who has yet to win a major. I say yet because it’s just a matter of time. X-Man has six top-10s in major championships and enters with nine top-25s in his last 10 starts.

U.S. Open Pick: Xander Schauffele
Top-10 Lock: Jon Rahm
Top-20 Lock: Rory McIlroy

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com