Patriots vs. Jets Betting Line Analysis

Gambling911.com takes a look at the line movements in the Patriots vs. Jets Week 2 game and what we can learn.

The Key Takeaway

The action was lopsided early and the books were reacting accordingly by trying to get as much action on New York.  The Patriots have covered the early 3-point spread in nine of their last ten versus the Jets.

What The Patriots-Jets Line Analysis Is Telling Us

• 91 percent of the action was on New England

• Books are very much reacting to that action by moving the line up 3 points in recent days.

• Patriots line should only be -1.5 but take that one with a grain of salt.

The Breakdown

BetOnline Line Movement

09/15 11:06 am-6 -105+6 -115

09/15 1:44 am-5½ -112+5½ -108

09/14 12:56 pm-5½ -110+5½ -110

09/14 12:47 am-5½ -120+5½ +100

09/13 7:07 pm-5½ -115+5½ -105

09/13 4:58 pm-5½ -111+5½ -109

09/13 3:08 pm-5½ -110+5½ -110

09/13 1:17 pm-5 -115+5 -105

09/13 10:15 am-5 -113+5 -107

09/13 8:59 am-5 -110+5 -110

09/13 8:37 am-4½ -115+4½ -105

09/12 11:37 pm-4½ -113+4½ -107

09/12 11:22 pm-4½ -110+4½ -110

09/12 9:06 pm-4 -115+4 -105

09/12 8:50 pm-4 -107+4 -113

09/12 7:49 pm-3½ -120+3½ +100

09/10 10:11 am-3½ -107+3½ -113

BetOnline had 91% of the early action coming in on New England, thus the fluid line move from New England -3.5 to -6 by Wednesday morning.

The line on this game should only be New England -1.5.  Now we're not saying the Patriots will win by that small a margin, but this is the line determined after calculating the team ratings and factoring in the Jets home field advantage.

The problem, of course, is the recent history between these two teams.  The Patriots have beaten the Jets in their last ten meetings.  All but one of those wins was by more than a field goal.  And the Pats aren't winning by four or five points as that would present a middling opportunity that the books most always avoid.  Middling is the ability to bet New England at -3.5 points and the Jets at +6 and being able to win on both sides with the game falling at 5 or 6.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com