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Perhaps the biggest Bowl game of the season thus far will play out Thursday night barring any surprise Covid cancellations when Pittsburgh takes on Michigan State. Both teams have been phenomenal for the sports bettors this season, with the Panthers failing to cover in only three games and MSU only two. Each team has two losses Straight Up as well.
Pittsburgh has the better value with an outright win as they come into this game as the underdog. The payout on the Panthers moneyline would be $12 for every $10 bet.
Michigan State will be a little more pricey at -140. They require a $14 bet to win $10 (that $14 is refunded just as long as the Spartans win and the profit is $10).
75% of the early action is on MSU. The books have moved to -3 but a few are reluctant as they are holding the Spartans at -2.5.
The killer stat here is that, as an away underdog since 2017, Pittsburgh is just 3-11 Straight Up and versus ranked opponents 5-12. This means they have lost more than 70% of the time.
MSU, on the other hand, is 26-7 Straight Up as a favorite over that same time span. They have lost a mere seven times as a favorite in the last five years. The Spartans are even 6-1 Against The Spread in their last 7 Bowl games.
Kenny Pickett might be gone, but most of the top receiving parts are still there for the Panthers including Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison.
Michigan State will be without one of its big stars, Kenneth Walker.
Gambling911.com does have the line Pittsburgh -5, but they probably lose a few points with Pickett gone. Even at -3 it's dangerous taking MSU. Instead a Spartans moneyline play is the best bet based on recent history.
Both teams were in good shape on the Covid front the eve of this bowl game.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
