Phillies-Pirates Betting Preview July 19

The total in the Phillies-Pirates game has moved from 10 to 11.  Even Bovada has shifted the total dramatically.  70% of those betting the total were still on the OVER at 11.  The line is Philadelphia -102 and Pittsburgh -108.

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PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies RH Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.54 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Jordan Lyles (5-6, 5.16)

Arrieta answered a porous outing on July 6 with a strong one eight nights later after yielding one run on four hits in five innings of a no-decision against Washington. The 2015 NL Cy Young Award recipient has been working through bone spurs in his pitching elbow for his last seven starts, going so far as to say that "if there was a better option, I might shut it down. But we don't have one." Josh Bell (7-for-21, two homers) has flustered Arrieta, who has struggled on the road with a 3-5 mark and 4.81 ERA while allowing the opposition to bat .300 against him.

Lyles owns an 0-5 mark in his last six outings and a bloated 10.13 ERA in his last seven after getting blitzed for seven runs in two-thirds of an inning in a 10-4 setback at the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. The 28-year-old has allowed eight homers in his last six trips to the mound and four walks in two of his last four outings. Jean Segura is 6-for-15 against Lyles, who owns a 1-1 record with a 3.22 ERA in 10 career appearances (six starts) versus Philadelphia.

Lyles' got to get better, one would think, so going with an OVER 11 here is a tough pill to swallow, especially after our loss last night.  Nine of the last ten meetings have stayed UNDER this number also.

Blue Jays -158 - 5Dimes still had the Blue Jays at -158, but who wants to bet Toronto at this high a number?  Most books had them priced over -160.  But the line has moved from -141 so there is definitely a concern among the books that the Blue Jays have this one in the bag.  70% of the public was still backing Toronto at this high price.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com