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The trend edge in the Padres vs. Cardinals game is on the UNDER.
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Seven of the last nine games in this series had gone UNDER the current number of 7.5 prior to Friday's meeting.
Heading into Saturday, 7 of the last 10 in this series have gone UNDER.
We stayed off this one due to the Cardinals having gone 1-6 in Flaherty's last 7 starts, and that record now moves to 1-7.
Ultimately we were right to stay on the sidelines here as this one landed a half run above the total (8).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres RH Chris Paddack (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (0-0, 1.50)
The much-heralded Paddack put forth a very sharp debut in the majors Sunday against San Francisco, limiting the Giants to one run and two hits while striking out seven in five innings. Including his dominant spring training, he has 31 strikeouts and four walks over 20 1/3 innings in 2019. The Texas native was 13-6 with a 1.82 ERA in 37 games in the minors over four seasons.
Coming off a solid but injury-marred 2018, Wacha opened the season with six solid innings in a no-decision at Milwaukee. He struck out seven and allowed one run in the contest and has sustained just one loss in his last 15 starts dating to last year. Included in that stretch is a six-inning, one-run effort at San Diego last May, which left the 27-year-old Wacha at 3-0 with 2.32 ERA in five career starts versus the Padres.
This one was just sitting at 7.5 after opening at 8, so it is deserving of a look.
We generally like a situation where two decent starting pitchers are coming off of a no-decision or loss their last start.
The Cardinals are 7-2 in Wacha's last 9 home starts.
The UNDER is 7-3-1 in Wacha’s last 11 starts overall.
San Diego started the season with four of five games resulted in the Padres only scoring three or fewer runs (the fifth of those games had 4 runs scored). The
The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
We are giving the UNDER a 55% chance for now but that's not enough to make this an official pick. We'll be watching to see if the total comes down to 7 anywhere. If so, that's an indication that books feel more confident of an UNDER. We will likely still be able to get the 7.5 somewhere still.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
