Books Right On With May Confidence Vote: Now Odds Favor Brexit Referendum

Brexit was one of the most wagered on political events ever, and now we have more bets coming in on the referendum.

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The betting odds have shifted sharply towards British Prime Minister Theresa May surviving a no-confidence vote on Wednesday after a leadership contest was called by lawmakers upset by her handling of Britain’s planned exit from the European Union, and she won handily. 

While May remains Tory leader after surviving the confidence vote, she won 200 votes, but 117 MPs voted against her.  She cannot be challenged for another year.

“The money suggests that Theresa May will survive today’s vote,” said Rupert Adams, a William Hill spokesman, ahead of Wednesday's vote. “But things remain bleak and we fully expect her to leave office in 2019.”

Many politicians in her party have called for her to be ousted because she is not pursuing a complete break with the EU.

A draft of the European Council conclusions on Brexit say the EU would use its "best endeavours to negotiate and conclude expeditiously a subsequent agreement that would replace the backstop so that it would only be in place for a short period and only as long as strictly necessary.”

Paddy Power said the odds for a second referendum on Brexit were now 58 percent, with a 42 percent probability of a general election before Britain is due to leave the EU in March.

The odds of parliament and the EU agreeing the prime minister’s divorce deal by the end of March are 36 percent.

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com