NCAA Basketball Picks February 19 – Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers Betting
The Tennessee Volunteers hadn’t lost a game since the day after Thanksgiving, but that all changed over the weekend and the Vols dropped from their perch as the No. 1 team in the land.
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Tennessee never had a chance against an inspired Kentucky club, falling 86-69 for just the second time this season. One victory during the Vols school record run of 19 in a row was a narrow five-point overtime takedown of the Vanderbilt Commodores last month. The Vols go for the season sweep and look to get back in the win column when they host Vandy on Tuesday night.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers
Date and Time: Tuesday, February 19, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN
Opening CBB Odds: Tennessee -18.5, O/U 148
Vanderbilt at Tennessee TV Coverage: ESPN
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Odds Analysis
Vandy just needs to win a game to get the monkey off its back. The Commodores have yet to taste victory in SEC play and their 13-game slide is one short of matching the longest in program history. They are faced with a tall task in taking down the Vols, who are primed to make a return to the win column after having their 19-game streak ended by Kentucky over the weekend.
Only three losses in the skid came by fewer than nine points and there were a couple of whoppers in there. The best chance the Dores had at claiming a victory was against the Volunteers when the teams went to overtime before Tennessee grabbed an 88-83 decision. Vandy has lost seven straight on the road and is 3-4 ATS in that span.
Now that their school record 19-game winning streak is history, the Vols can concentrate on holding on to the lead in the conference. They are tied atop the SEC standings with LSU and Kentucky is just a game back. Tennessee did a lot of work to end up even at this point, but they have a glorious opportunity to keep pace against the struggling Dores and to extend their unbeaten home record to 16-0.
Vanderbilt
It’s one thing to continue losing by doing stupid stuff that prevents success. That hasn’t been the case for Vandy. The Dores play hard and on several occasions during their losing streak they’ve been close down the stretch only to have inexperience and fatigue play a role. The biggest issue has been offense, or lack of it. Vandy padded its season stats during the non-conference slate and averages 72.1 points per game for the season. But that number has drastically declined since the start of league play.
The Commodores have scored more than 71 points in a SEC game just once this year, that coming against the Vols last month when they tallied 83 in the overtime loss. Even with that effort they are scoring just 62.6 points per game in 12 conference matchups. The loss of Darius Garland took a toll and his replacement Saben Lee has struggled with an increased workload. Lee, who leads the team in scoring, netted just four points in each of the last two games.
Tennessee
Playing as well as they have all season, it was bound to happen at some point. And the time came last weekend when the Vols were thoroughly outplayed by an eager Kentucky squad, falling 86-69 to end a 19-game winning streak. “The things we said we needed to do, we didn’t do. We were a really poor, selfish team offensively,” coach Rick Barnes said after the drubbing. That hasn’t been the case all season, which is why I believe the Vols will respond in a dominant way. Their average scoring margin this season is 16.5 points.
Led by 19.3 points per game from Grant Williams, the Vols are tough to defend with an abundance of scorers. In all, five players score in double figures with a fifth, forward Kyle Alexander, not far behind at 8.4 points per outing. Williams was efficient against Kentucky scoring 16 points, but he needs to attempt more than the four shots he launched in that game.
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On paper this looks like a total mismatch. Tennessee has lost just twice this season while the Dores are fighting through a 13-game skid. And the Vols have to be somewhat perturbed over their last outing when they fell to Kentucky in an uncharacteristic performance. Vandy plays hard, however they don’t have the weapons to match Tennessee. And playing on the road isn’t going to help the Dores’ chances of ending their slump. Aaron Nesmith has evolved into Vandy’s best option and he will continue to put up points. But that’s not going to be enough to stop the Vols from returning to the win column.
CBB Score Prediction: Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 62
