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The early spread on the WKU vs. Indiana game was coming in at Hoosiers -7. Caesars dropped their opening number of -9.5 to -7.5 within the first hour of opening. Across the board, most books had Indiana at -6.5 coming into Friday. Some moves to -6 throughout the week were also observed.
Sagarin had Indiana with a power rating of 69.23 and Western Kentucky at 67.20. With home field advantage we get a number of WKU 0.4. This suggested as much as a 7.5 overlay early and technically the wrong team is favored.
The Hilltoppers routed Hawaii in Week 2. Austin Reed threw three touchdown passes and ran for a score, leading his team to the 49-17 victory. Reed completed 22 of 31 passes for 271 yards with one interception.
Indiana is a bit more tested coming into this one having beaten Illinois at home in Week 1.
They defeated Idaho as a -24.5 home favorite but failed to cover the spread with a 35-22 victory. Much of that was attributed to a sluggish first half.
Back from the break, Connor Bazelak threw touchdown passes of 43 yards to A.J. Barner and 26 yards to D.J. Matthews Jr.
Both teams come into this game 2-0 and this will be Indiana's third straight home game. They are yet to play on the road and could be looking ahead at a game in Cincinnati next week.
Underlay/Overlay Alert
WKU (67.28) Indiana (69.36). With the home field advantage, our number here is 4.50. This line has mostly been -6.5, so we are looking at a 2-point overlay. Six dogs won last week as overlays of 1 to 2 points, two favorites did as well. 76% of the early action was on the Hilltoppers.
We anticipate Indiana looking ahead and, as a result, we do not see the Hoosiers winning by more than the Sagarin number, which is 4.50. WKU for the cover here +6.5.
Result was a WKU cover in OT with Indiana winning by just three points.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
