2012 Major League Baseball National League Betting Odds
Carrie Stroup with your 2012 Major League Baseball National League betting odds. There are all future prices that can be wagered on at Sportsbook.com here. This is a rather extensive piece that you might prefer printing up.
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NL EAST
ATLANTA BRAVES
2011 record: 89-73 (.549), -3.2 Units
Odds to Win National League East: 9/2
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 13/2
Odds to Win World Series: 16/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 86.5
HITTING
The Braves were 27th in the majors in steals last year, but that number should rise with a full season of speedster OF MICHAEL BOURN, who was acquired from Houston last July . . . OFs MARTIN PRADO and JASON HEYWARD comprise the corner outfield spots, and are both are looking to bounce back after disappointing, injury-riddled 2011 campaigns . . . 2B DAN UGGLA smacked a career-best 36 HR in his first year with Atlanta, his fifth straight 30-homer season . . . Steady veterans C BRIAN McCANN and 3B CHIPPER JONES comprise a solid middle of the lineup. McCann has four straight 20-HR, 70-RBI seasons, while Jones, who turns 40 in April, has a career .402 on-base percentage . . . 1B FREDDIE FREEMAN was the N.L.’s best offensive rookie last year, batting .282 with 21 HR and 76 RBI . . . The starting shortstop will be one of two highly-touted, 22-year-old prospects, TYLER PASTORNICKY or ANDRELTON SIMMONS.
STARTING PITCHING
Even with significant injuries to three starters, the Braves rotation still ranked ninth in the majors in ERA (3.73), thanks to TIM HUDSON posting a 3.22 ERA in 215 innings. The right-hander was lights-out at Turner Field again, going 10-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. But he’ll be out at least a month because of back problems
. . . JAIR JURRJENS was outstanding through the end of July (12-3, 2.38 ERA), but a knee strain bothered him in August and shut him down for September. Although many teams inquired about Jurrjens in the offseason, it doesn’t look like the Braves want to deal him just yet . . . TOMMY HANSON is another young star (25) that had to be shut down in early August due to a partially torn rotator cuff. His ERA was a career-worst 3.60, but he notched a career-best 9.8 K/9 rate . . . BRANDON BEACHY, also 25, posted a whopping 10.7 K/9 ratio with a respectable ERA (3.68) and WHIP (1.21) . . . Atlanta is loaded with young pitchers, but expect MIKE MINOR (5-3, 4.14 ERA) and RANDALL DELGADO to start in the majors, with JULIO TEHERAN, who has the most upside of the trio, to begin 2012 in Triple-A.
RELIEF PITCHING
CRAIG KIMBREL exceeded all expectations last year, establishing himself as one of the best closers in the game. He struck out an eye-popping 14.8 batters per nine (127 K in 77 IP), and converted 46-of-54 (85%) save chances . . . Even though Kimbrel’s job as a closer is probably locked down for the next decade, the Braves have two other great relievers, both lefties. JONNY VENTERS posted a 1.84 WHIP and .176 opponents’ BA in 88 innings, and is next in line for saves (five in 2011) should Kimbrel suffer an injury . . . Fellow southpaw ERIC O’FLAHERTY had a 0.98 ERA (8 ER in 73.2 IP) and 32 holds, just three fewer than Venters.
MIAMI MARLINS
2011 record: 72-90 (.444), -14.3 Units
Odds to Win National League East: 9/2
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 8/1
Odds to Win World Series: 20/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 84.5
HITTING
Ozzie Guillen takes over as manager for the newly named Miami Marlins, who will open their new retractable-roof Marlins Ballpark in 2012. Indoor games could generate more offense, but the fences are pretty deep (340’ to left, 384’ to 392’ power alleys, 416’ center and 335’ right) . . . New SS JOSE REYES led the NL with a .337 average and posted a career-best .384 OBP . . . Malcontent HANLEY RAMIREZ will reluctantly move to 3B, but hopefully he will play harder under Guillen than he has under the previous two skippers . . . OF GIANCARLO STANTON hit 34 HR last year and will drive in 100 if Ramirez stays healthy . . . OF LOGAN MORRISON cranked 23 bombs, but his batting average dipped to .247 with this new-found power . . . 1B GABY SANCHEZ fizzled after August 1 (.211 BA), but still had 19 HR and 78 RBI . . . OF EMILIO BONIFACIO swiped 40 bases and led the team with a .296 average, but he’ll move down the order because of Reyes . . . C JOHN BUCK and 2B OMAR INFANTE’s jobs are secure, but 22-year-old
prospect MATT DOMINGUEZ might start 2012 in Triple-A instead of sitting and watching Ramirez and Sanchez at the corner infield spots.
STARTING PITCHING
JOSH JOHNSON is dominant when healthy, but he’s made only 88 starts over the past five seasons. His shoulder feels great after surgery last year, and he expects to take the mound on Opening Day . . . MARK BUEHRLE followed his former manager and signed a 4-year, $58M deal with Miami. The 33-year-old lefty was 13-9 with a 3.59 ERA last year, his 11th straight season of 200+ IP and 10+ wins . . . RICKY NOLASCO once again had 10 wins and a strong K-to-BB ratio (3.4), but also sported an 8.18 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his final eight starts . . . ANIBAL SANCHEZ posted a second straight productive season, fanning 202 batters in 196.1 innings. He did give up twice as many HR (20) as he did in 2010 though . . . CARLOS ZAMBRANO will begin 2012 in the rotation, but where he ends up is anybody’s guess. If Guillen can motivate him, Zambrano has plenty of innings left in his 30-year-old arm.
RELIEF PITCHING
The signing of HEATH BELL to a three-year deal gives the Marlins a reliable long-term closer for the first time since Robb Nen in the mid-’90s. Bell’s numbers could suffer a bit with the move to a smaller ballpark and an alarming drop in strikeout rate (11.1 in 2010 to 7.3 in 2011), but he still throws 94 mph . . . STEVE CISHEK will be the main set-up man for Bell and could see a handful of saves, converting all three opportunities last year
and fanning 55 batters in 54.2 innings . . . MIKE DUNN is the lefty set-up man in this bullpen. He has great stuff (100 K in 86 career innings), but remains extremely wild (53 walks in those 86 IP).
NEW YORK METS
2011 record: 77-85 (.475), -0.6 Units
Odds to Win National League East: 40/1
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 40/1
Odds to Win World Series: 100/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 71.5
HITTING
The Mets will be moving in the fences at Citi Field by as much as 12 feet and reducing the height to eight feet, making the park more homer-friendly . . . The loss of Jose Reyes and his NL-leading average at the top of the order weakens an already subpar lineup . . . 3B DAVID WRIGHT is coming off his worst season (.254 BA, 14 HR, 61 RBI) and could be traded at the July 31 deadline . . . New OF ANDRES TORRES provides very little at the plate (.221 BA, .312 OBP), but the future is bright for youngsters OF LUCAS DUDA (.852 OPS) and 1B IKE DAVIS (.926 OPS), who missed most of 2011 with an ankle injury . . . OF JASON BAY (.245 BA) continues to be a colossal bust . . . SS RUBEN TEJADA will be tasked with trying to replace Reyes. The 22-year-old made great strides last year, batting .319 after August 1 . . . DANIEL MURPHY hit .320 last year, and will start at second, possibly losing AB in a platoon with JUSTIN TURNER . . . C JOSH THOLE hits well enough to be an above-average starting catcher.
STARTING PITCHING
With the fences moving forward at Citi Field, the entire Mets pitching staff takes a hit . . . JOHAN SANTANA will be ready for Opening Day, but it’s hard to have much faith that he’ll remain healthy for an entire season. His velocity on his fastball is not what it used to be, topping out in the high-80’s . . . MIKE PELFREY benefitted most from the pitcher-friendly ballpark with serviceable home numbers (3.94 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and atrocious road statistics (5.49 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) . . . JONATHON NIESE was also much better at Citi Field (3.54 ERA) than he was on the road (5.33 ERA), but he posted 14 games of 6+ strikeouts for the second straight season . . . DILLON GEE began the season 7-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but closed the 2011 campaign with a 5.51 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his final 17 starts . . . Knuckle-balling R.A. DICKEY posted a second straight solid season with New York, notching a 3.28 ERA and a solid 1.23 WHIP. At age 37, he hopes to keep his pitches dancing in the smaller home ballpark.
RELIEF PITCHING
Two former Blue Jays late-innings relievers, FRANK FRANCISCO and JON RAUCH, were signed from Toronto to pitch at the back of the bullpen. Francisco will likely get first crack at the ninth-inning role, saving 17 games last year and keeping his strikeout rate above one per inning for the fourth straight year. Rauch is an imposing figure at 6-foot-11, but he posted a 1.35 WHIP and paltry 6.2 strikeout rate last year. But 52 saves since 2008 makes him a worthy candidate for ninth-inning duty. . . RAMON RAMIREZ was part of the Andres Torres/Angel Pagan trade and he should be a valuable set-up man. He had a strong two-year stint with San Francisco, posting a 2.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2011 record: 104-63 (.623), +9.1 Units
Odds to Win National League East: 5/9
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 5/2
Odds to Win World Series: 6/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 92.5
HITTING
This Phillies lineup had another subpar season, finishing 18th in the majors in homers (153) and 13th in runs (4.4 per game) . . . The team re-signed free-agent SS JIMMY ROLLINS, especially because light-hitting WILSON VALDEZ is his backup . . . Raul Ibanez has left town, which allows OF JOHN MAYBERRY JR. to display his power on a daily basis. He had 15 HR in 267 at-bats last year . . . 1B RYAN HOWARD will not be ready for Opening Day after Achilles surgery in October, and will be replaced by a platoon of newcomers, JIM THOME and TY WIGGINTON . . . 2B CHASE UTLEY continues to be bothered by tendinitis in his knee, which has caused his numbers to drop significantly in the past two years. He will not be ready for Opening Day and no timetable has been set for his return . . . Veterans OF SHANE VICTORINO and C CARLOS RUIZ are both coming off typical productive seasons . . . OF HUNTER PENCE batted .324 with 11 HR after his trade from Houston and is poised for a huge 2012 campaign at age 28 . . . 3B PLACIDO POLANCO is coming off his third Gold Glove season at the hot corner, but his .277 BA in 2011 was his lowest mark since 1999 . . . Stud prospect OF DOMONIC BROWN is expected to begin the season in Triple-A.
STARTING PITCHING
ROY HALLADAY won the Cy Young Award in 2010 in his first year in Philadelphia, but he was even better in 2011, posting a career-best 2.35 ERA and also reaching a personal best with 220 strikeouts . . . CLIFF LEE was also outstanding in his first full season in a Phillies uniform, tallying six shutouts, which included a stretch of three straight blankings midway through the year. He wasn’t afraid to pitch in Citizens Bank Park, going 11-3 with a 1.94 ERA at his new home . . . Like Halladay and Lee, COLE HAMELS also notched a career-best ERA (2.79) and held batters to a .214 average. Although he has the stigma of being oft-injured, Hamels was able to start 30+ games for the fourth straight season . . . VANCE WORLEY was impressive once he was inserted into the rotation, going 11-3 with a 3.02 ERA as a starter and fanning 73 over 74.2 innings of his final dozen starts . . . JOE BLANTON rounds out the rotation, but he could be limited a bit after an elbow injury cost him much of the 2011 season.
RELIEF PITCHING
Not willing to shell out the big money for inconsistent and oft-injured closer Brad Lidge, the Phillies decided to spend their dough on JONATHAN PAPELBON instead. The former Red Sox closer was 31-of-34 in save chances last year with a career-high 87 strikeouts and just 10 walks . . . With the departure of free agent Ryan Madson, ANTONIO BASTARDO assumes eighth-inning duties. The southpaw allowed a microscopic .144 opponents’ BA, won six games and saved eight others last season . . . JOSE CONTERAS (age 40) returns for his seventh-inning duty and appears healthy enough to pitch following last year’s season-ending elbow surgery. He is 9-of-10 in save chances since 2010.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
2011 record: 80-81 (.497), +10.8 Units
Odds to Win National League East: 6/1
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 11/1
Odds to Win World Series: 25/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 84
HITTING
The Nats were among the eight worst teams in the majors in runs (3.88 per game), BA (.242), OBP (.309) and OPS (.691) . . . Much of that had to do with the first two spots in the batting order hitting .285 OBP and .283 OBP respectively . . . OF ROGER BERNADINA (.301 OBP) and SS IAN DESMOND (.298 OBP) were the regular 1-2 hitters in the order . . . $126 million OF JAYSON WERTH was also to blame, batting .232 with a meager 58 RBI in 561 at-bats . . . 3B RYAN ZIMMERMAN also missed two months with an abdominal problem and had a down year with 12 HR and 49 RBI in 101 games . . . But OF MIKE MORSE had a breakout season, leading the Nats in batting (.303), HR (31) and RBI (95) . . . 1B ADAM LaROCHE suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in June, but should be fully healed . . . Washington is counting on a pair of talented 24-year-olds to contribute a little more in 2B DANNY ESPINOSA (.236 BA, 21 HR) and C WILSON RAMOS (15 HR in 389 AB).
STARTING PITCHING
STEPHEN STRASBURG is back fully healed from Tommy John surgery, but will reportedly be limited to 160 innings in 2012. That’s still enough time to strike out 150 batters and win a dozen games though . . . In sending four quality prospects to Oakland, the Nats paid a huge price for GIO GONZALEZ. They hope he can overcome his control issues and become an elite No. 2 . . . Well-traveled EDWIN JACKSON was also brought in to help bolster the rotation. He joins his sixth different club since 2008, but Jackson is just 28 years old and was serviceable after being traded to St. Louis last year (5-2, 3.58 ERA) . . . JORDAN ZIMMERMANN was in the same boat as Strasburg last year, coming off elbow surgery and limited to 161.1 innings. But in that time, he had a team-best 3.18 ERA and 4.0 K-to-BB ratio (124 K, 31 BB) . . . JOHN LANNAN remains the top lefty in the Nats rotation with a team-high 10 wins in 2011. He dominated left-handed hitters last year (.211 BA, 55 K in 185 AB), but still needs to improve his weak 1.4 K-to-BB ratio (106 K, 76 BB).
RELIEF PITCHING
DREW STOREN had a phenomenal first year as a full-time closer, saving 43-of-48 games with a 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 74 K in 75.1 innings. His role will remain the same in 2012 once he returns from the 15-day DL (elbow) to start the season . . . Newcomer BRAD LIDGE was limited to 25 innings because of shoulder problems last year, but he appears to be the closer until Storen returns . . . The Nats have arguably the best set-up man in the game in TYLER CLIPPARD, who led the majors with 38 holds and posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.84 WHIP for the season. He held opponents to a .162 average and fanned 104 batters in 88.1 innings of work . . . Lefty SEAN BURNETT saw a huge decline in his numbers, as his ERA rose from 2.14 to 3.81 and his WHIP jumped from 1.14 to 1.32. This was mostly due to a diminishing strikeout rate (8.9 to 5.2 last year).
NL CENTRAL
CHICAGO CUBS
2011 record: 71-91 (.438), -15.3 Units
Odds to Win National League Central: 15/1
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 25/1
Odds to Win World Series: 60/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 73.5
HITTING
“Under New Management” is the motto in Wrigleyville, where Epstein, Hoyer, Sveum and Co. aim to turn SS STARLIN CASTRO and a bunch of straw into gold . . . OF DAVID DeJESUS was an underrated first pick-up. But OFs ALFONSO SORIANO and MARLON BYRD are overpaid and over the hill . . . C GEOVANY SOTO has lost his mojo . . . New 3B IAN STEWART has a lousy career OPS of .737 away from Coors Field . . . 1B BRYAN LaHAIR is tagged as part of a “youth movement,” but he’s almost 30. The other youths—2B DARWIN BARNEY, IF JEFF BAKER, and IF BLAKE DEWITT —are interchangeable guys with low ceilings . . . Fourth OF TONY CAMPANA is fast but one-dimensional . . . And minor-league reinforcements are scarce. OF BRETT JACKSON is solid, but blocked in the lineup. And former uber-prospect 3B JOSH VITTERS has done nothing to justify his third-overall draft status. This rebuilding process will take time. Meanwhile, somewhere in the Chicago suburbs, Jim Hendry quietly sobs into a pile of Cubs-themed stuffed animals.
STARTING PITCHING
RYAN DEMPSTER should bounce back from an unlucky year in which there was nearly a full-run difference between his ERA and his FIP. He’s no ace in good times, but he’s an underrated and dependable source of innings and strikeouts . . . MATT GARZA didn’t disappoint in his debut season on the North Side, but he was an odd acquisition to begin with: the Cubs dealt top prospects from a thin system when all signs pointed to a belly-flop of a season. He’s already trade bait again . . . JEFF SAMARDZIJA is moving to the rotation after a strong year in the bullpen (2.97 ERA, 87 K in 88 IP), but he needs to cut down on his walks (5.1 per 9 IP) . . . What killed TRAVIS WOOD in 2011 was uncharacteristic wildness. His walk total spiked by over 50 percent from 2010. He’s better than this, though it’s hard to say how much. It could be that a 40-inning jump from 2010 to 2011 aided his freefall . . . Subpar newcomers PAUL MAHOLM and CHRIS VOLSTAD will also compete for rotation spots. The lefty Maholm is coming off his best season in Pittsburgh (3.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), but was awful after the All-Star break (0-5, 5.75 ERA, .355 Opp. BA). The 6-foot-8 Volstad was 5-13 with a 4.89 ERA for the Marlins last year, but still has time to figure things out at age 25.
RELIEF PITCHING
Because of his contract and the head-scratching faith in the “closer mentality” that still pervades even the most enlightened front offices, CARLOS MARMOL will enter the 2012 campaign with a near-ironclad grip on ninth-inning duties for the Cubs. Trading away Sean Marshall, arguably Chicago’s best reliever last season, is yet another vote of confidence for Marmol. His lack of command leads to more hittable pitches (along with tons of walks), though his ceiling for strikeouts and saves is sky-high . . . KERRY WOOD will be the main set-up man again after a triumphant return to Chicago last season (3.35 ERA, 57 K in 51 IP).
CINCINNATI REDS
2011 record: 79-83 (.488), -15.1 Units
Odds to Win National League Central: 11/10
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 13/2
Odds to Win World Series: 15/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 88
HITTING
2B BRANDON PHILLIPS sparked the Reds offense after moving to the top of the order. But his free-swinging makes him a bad fit there . . . SS ZACK COZART played in only 11 games for the Reds before wrecking his non-throwing elbow, but it was still enough to convince the team they’d seen enough of PAUL JANISH in the starting role . . . 1B JOEY VOTTO keeps punishing pitchers . . . OF JAY BRUCE is in his gawky, teenage phase, but he’s already emerged as a major power source . . . OF DREW STUBBS must cut down on his MLB-leading 206 strikeouts. He’s out of the leadoff spot now, but those whiffs don’t play well anywhere in the lineup . . . OF CHRIS HEISEY should get the starting nod in left now that Yonder Alonso is out of the picture . . . 3B SCOTT ROLEN is a permanent health question mark. His backup, JUAN FRANCISCO, swings for the fences . . . C DEVIN MESORACO is the most hyped catching prospect since Matt Wieters . . . RYAN HANIGAN will split squatting responsibilities with him.
STARTING PITCHING
Considered a source of strength entering the 2011 campaign, the Reds rotation directly caused their undoing . . . The first step toward a remedy was trading for MAT LATOS, who began 2011 slow and got stronger as the year went on. The 24-year-old threw at least six innings with 5+ K in 16 of his final 17 starts (2.94 ERA). But that was in a much more pitcher-friendly environment. He has a decent career road ERA (3.57), and Cincy will surely give him much better run support than he received in San Diego . . . Last year’s pitching problems began with BRONSON ARROYO, who gave up more home runs in a season than any pitcher in this millennium. He allowed more HR (46) than walks (45) . . . JOHNNY CUETO was the one big bright spot; he hasn’t maintained the strikeout rates he flashed early in his career, but he’s All-Star caliber . . . HOMER BAILEY was a disappointment, going 9-7 with a 4.43 ERA . . . MIKE LEAKE actually pitched pretty well after he got his first taste of the minors to get his mechanics worked out.
RELIEF PITCHING
With Francisco Cordero flying the coop, and newcomer RYAN MADSON lost for the season with Tommy John Surgery, Cincinnati will use a closer-by-committee approach . . . The Reds gave up three players, including starter Travis Wood, to acquire
SEAN MARSHALL, who should fit in nicely as a set-up man who’s tough on both right-and left-handed batters . . . AROLDIS CHAPMAN is listed as the main set-up man for Marshall, but he missed out on winter ball and could be too raw to trust in the ninth inning . . . LOGAN ONDRUSEK is also capable of being a decent closer, with a big fastball.
HOUSTON ASTROS
2011 record: 56-106 (.346), -34.0 Units
Odds to Win National League Central: 120/1
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 40/1
Odds to Win World Series: 300/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 63
HITTING
This season will mark Houston’s final year in the National League. Look away, children, as the Astros launch into what is sure to be the crappiest victory lap in baseball history . . . Tiny 2B JOSE ALTUVE’s jump from High-A to MLB starter says more about Houston’s pitiful state than anything. He belongs in Triple-A . . . CHRIS JOHNSON won the starting 3B job as JIMMY PAREDES was optioned to Triple-A. Johnson was thought to have 25-homer power, but last year he slugged just .378 . . . 1B CARLOS LEE is in the twilight of a very productive career. Backup 1B BRETT WALLACE seems to be in the twilight of an unproductive one . . . OF BRIAN BOGUSEVIC has a low ceiling. But he’s one of only a few recent draft picks who will even contribute
. . . OF J.D. MARTINEZ doesn’t blame you if you haven’t heard of him, but he’s the team’s best player who hits third in the lineup . . . SS JED LOWRIE was a nice little pickup for a mid-tier closer. But his platoon split is intense . . . C JASON CASTRO will probably play ahead of CHRIS SNYDER . . . OF JORDAN SCHAFER has yet to put things together; but he’ll be starting in center on Opening Day. Fourth OF J.B. SHUCK is only 24, but doesn’t have a whole lot of upside.
STARTING PITCHING
WANDY RODRIGUEZ has been a durable, above-average starter for five years, yet every season his real-world team limits his wins. He’ll be traded at some point this year . . . Don’t shortchange BUD NORRIS. He’s an underrated source of strikeouts, and has improved his command . . . J.A. HAPP really needs to cut down on his walk total . . . JORDAN LYLES couldn’t legally drink until the second-to-last week of the season. He’s in the big leagues way too soon. He’s yet another young Astro who isn’t terrible, but won’t ever set the world on fire . . . KYLE WEILAND came from Boston with Jed Lowrie and should earn the final spot in the rotation . . . Texas-bred fireballer JARRED COSART, 21, is a legitimately exciting (but risky) prospect who Houston will probably rush up to the majors at some point this year.
RELIEF PITCHING
BRETT MYERS flummoxed the Astros’ front office with a stinker of a season. He’s probably closer to that pitcher than to the one who posted a career-best 3.14 ERA in 2010 at age 29, but he’ll move the bullpen this year to get the rare opportunities to close out a game when this awful team is actually leading . . . WILTON LOPEZ was good in 2011, but was much better the previous season, when he may have been the most underrated reliever in the National League. Houston will go with him in the ninth if they want Myers to return to the rotation . . . BRANDON LYON has seen better days. He bombed early, then was shut down for good with a bicep injury. He intimidates nobody now.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2011 record: 101-72 (.584), +19.5 Units
Odds to Win National League Central: 9/5
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 11/1
Odds to Win World Series: 25/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 85.5
HITTING
It helped when the Brew Crew had Prince Fielder in the fold, but there’s still lots of firepower here now that he’s moved on . . . 2B RICKIE WEEKS starts it off, with some of the game’s best bat speed . . . OF NYJER MORGAN doesn’t hit the ball hard, but when it drops in he’s off to the races . . . OF RYAN BRAUN has
put up Hall of Fame numbers since day one. Now the big question is whether he doped to do it . . . OF COREY HART has improved his batting eye and is no longer an on-base liability. He’s also one of the few Brewers hitters who plays even average defense . . . 3B ARAMIS RAMIREZ is on the down side of his career, but remains productive. Backup TAYLOR GREEN should see decent time behind him though . . . IF MAT GAMEL is slated to start at first; nobody knows if he’ll be any good. He sure as heck won’t be Prince Fielder . . . C JONATHAN LUCROY was effective in a middle-of-the-road kind of way . . . Fourth OF CARLOS GOMEZ still can’t hit . . . SS ALEX GONZALEZ will play every day and has decent pop for a middle infielder.
STARTING PITCHING
The Brewers’ front three is among the most formidable in baseball. YOVANI GALLARDO has improved his peripherals every year as a starter. High pitch counts used to chase him early in games, but not anymore. One day he’ll win a Cy Young . . . ZACK GREINKE was a product of bad defense, bad luck, and an unusually high home run rate. In the second half, he was a beast . . . SHAUN MARCUM pulled a reverse Greinke, starting brilliantly then fading down the stretch. Not too surprising, given the durability issues that have followed Marcum throughout his career. Most teams would still kill to have him as their No. 3 starter . . . People laughed when the Crew signed RANDY WOLF for three years and $30 million, but he’s been a highly dependable innings-eater in both seasons as a Brewer . . . The same holds for CHRIS NARVESON. He’s the very definition of a back-end guy, but as fifth starters go, he’s pretty good.
RELIEF PITCHING
JOHN AXFORD and his Long John Silver’s facial hair are proof positive that you don’t need to spend a fortune on a closer. Axford was an undrafted retread when Milwaukee signed him. The list of “proven closers” with fat contracts that Axford has outpitched each of the past two years is a deep one . . . FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ ruined the Brewers’ offseason plans by accepting arbitration. He’s a decent bet for some cheap saves, and still brings it with that crazy body-flinging delivery. But the team may still deal him at some point this season . . . KAMERON LOE has made a reasonably smooth transition to full-time reliever.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2011 record: 72-90 (.444), -1.5 Units
Odds to Win National League Central: 20/1
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 25/1
Odds to Win World Series: 80/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 73.5
HITTING
The Pirates’ two-month casual flirtation with competitiveness was cute while it lasted, before this team fizzled to a 72-win season. This team is still years away . . . But don’t blame OF ANDREW McCUTCHEN, who might be the best all-around player in the division. Of all the ballyhooed outfielders from the 2005 draft, he’s the one GMs would most want to build around . . . OF JOSE TABATA, not so much. He’s serviceable and has plus speed, but the six-year extension the Pirates gave him was absurd . . . 2B NEIL WALKER has settled into a respectable place short of stardom . . . 3B PEDRO ALVAREZ has a lot of uphill climbing to do if he wants to wake up old expectations. He’ll compete with 3B CASEY MCGEHEE for a starting role, but it’s most likely that Alvarez moves to first base to back up 1B GARRETT JONES . . . OFs NATE McLOUTH and ALEX PRESLEY are underwhelming choices for the starting left-field spot . . . SS CLINT BARMES and C ROD BARAJAS would like to thank the Pirates for wildly overpaying them.
STARTING PITCHING
JEFF KARSTENS looked pretty decent for much of last year. But that’s what happens when you get to log 14 percent of your innings against the lowly Astros. Better teams exposed him for the replacement-level guy he is . . . Contrary to what a lot of bored, lazy sportswriters wanted you to believe last year, CHARLIE MORTON doesn’t pitch like Roy Halladay. At all . . . JAMES McDONALD could still be special if he cut down his walk rate . . . ERIK BEDARD was a respectable signing. Even if his shoulder acts up, he cost only $4.5 million for a year. If he’s healthy, he’s still well above-average . . . KEVIN CORREIA may only be slightly more effective at striking out hitters than a batting tee, but the Pirates are grateful for the innings he eats . . . BRAD LINCOLN is the designated fill-in if any of the other starters get hurt (cough, Bedard). In the meantime, he’s a swing man.
RELIEF PITCHING
Closer JOEL HANRAHAN has been outstanding since first donning a Pirates uniform in 2009, converting 40-of-44 saves with a 1.83 ERA last season. It makes sense for the rebuilding Pirates to move him, but they’ll probably keep the hand they were dealt . . . There isn’t another qualified ninth-inning pitcher in this bullpen though. EVAN MEEK was bit by the shoulder bug. His early season was an unqualified disaster, but he turned it around and regained his form once he came back in September. He should be fully healthy again, and a quiet source of a few saves . . . CHRIS RESOP is another primary set-up man, but he posted a 4.39 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 2011 . . . DANIEL McCUTCHEN won’t be so lucky with his ERA this year if he doesn’t lower his walk rate. He’s just not a guy to put much faith in.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
2011 record: 101-79 (.561), +7.2 Units
Odds to Win National League Central: 7/2
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 15/1
Odds to Win World Series: 35/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 84.5
HITTING
Alienate and trade your talented young centerfielder for bullpen scraps and a middling, impending free-agent starter. Justify your ludicrous pitching changes by blaming crowd noise and your innocent bullpen coach—and you too could win a World Series! This was Tony La Russa baseball. But he’s gone now, as is the all-world Albert Pujols . . . SS RAFAEL FURCAL liked his short stint in the Show Me State enough to sign up for more . . . OF CARLOS BELTRAN will hit second after an impressive 2011 campaign during which he produced solid numbers in pitchers’ parks amidst weak lineups . . . 2Bs TYLER GREENE and DANIEL DESCALSO are the latest plucky “gamer” to play infield at Busch . . . Resuscitated slugger 1B LANCE BERKMAN shifts to a much more suitable defensive position. . . OF MATT HOLLIDAY’s OPS remains as strong as ever . . . 3B DAVID FREESE will never have to buy a drink in Missouri again after his postseason heroics . . . C YADIER MOLINA is a defensive whiz behind the plate and an underrated hitter . . . OFs ALLEN CRAIG and JON JAY are more suited to platoon roles, but Jay will be starting in center on Opening Day.
STARTING PITCHING
His stuff isn’t nearly what it used to be, and he’s more than earned his reputation within the game as a towering crybaby. But on the mound, CHRIS CARPENTER remains ruthlessly effective when he’s healthy. But he’ll miss the first couple of months of the 2012 campaign due to shoulder problems . . . ADAM WAINWRIGHT should be ready to go on Opening Day, and has shown every reason to think he’ll be his old brilliant self . . . JAIME GARCIA cannot sustain a sub-2.00 ERA for a full season. He’s a mid-rotation starter, but one of the better ones in all of baseball . . . Did KYLE LOHSE really register a 1.17 WHIP over an entire season? Really? He just doesn’t miss enough bats to keep that going . . . JAKE WESTBROOK stayed healthy for a full season again, which is a relief given his past dalliances with the DL. He’s an innings eater who’s capable of another dozen wins . . . LANCE LYNN gives the Cardinals enviable depth in the rotation. He’ll probably slide back to the bullpen once Carpenter returns . . . Uber-prospect SHELBY MILLER could be a second-half call-up.
RELIEF PITCHING
It doesn’t look pretty when JASON MOTTE winds up and delivers a pitch, but in the end, results are results. The converted catcher has finally nailed down the closer role that many predicted would be his a few years ago. The only way he loses it this time is if he hurts himself with that painful delivery . . . FERNANDO SALAS can more than hold his own if that happens. He’ll slot into the eighth-inning role, but he provides more of the pitching depth that is a hallmark of this Cardinals team . . . KYLE McCLELLAN, like Lynn, is serviceable both in relief or in the rotation. But he’s better in the former role.
NL WEST
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
2011 record: 96-71 (.575), +26.0 Units<br>
Odds to Win National League West: <b>8/5</b><br>
Odds to Win National League Pennant: <b>8/1</b><br>
Odds to Win World Series: <b>20/1</b><br>
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: <b>86 wins</b><br>
(For latest Odds, connect to <A href="http://www.sportsbook.com/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=baseball">Sportsbook.com</A>)<P>
<b>HITTING</b><br>
Arizona’s offense placed ninth in the majors in runs (4.5 per game), homers (172) and OPS (.736), thanks in big part to its young outfield trio . . . OF JUSTIN UPTON, 24, had a career
year and led his team with a .289 BA, 31 HR,
88 RBI, 105 runs and a .369 OBP . . . OF GERARDO PARRA may have won a Gold Glove, but OF JASON KUBEL is the new leftfielder. Kubel’s power numbers will improve in the
desert . . . OF CHRIS YOUNG’s .236 BA was poor, but his .331 OBP allowed him to score 89 times and swipe a team-high 22 SB . . . 1B PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT, 24, belted 30 homers in 103 Double-A games and continued his power in the majors with eight bombs in 156 at-bats . . . 3B RYAN ROBERTS (19 HR, 86 runs) and C MIGUEL MONTERO (18 HR, 86 RBI) also had career-best seasons . . . 2B AARON HILL was a great midseason acquisition from Toronto, tallying an .878 OPS in 33 games with Arizona . . . SS STEPHEN DREW batted only .252 with 5 HR in half a season before fracturing his ankle. He’ll probably return in early May, and speedy WILLIE BLOOMQUIST will replace him in the starting lineup.
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D-backs starters won 71 games, sixth-most in baseball . . . IAN KENNEDY won 21 of those contests and led the team with a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts. He also held batters to a .210 BA at hitter-friendly Chase Field . . . DANIEL HUDSON was strong in all facets as well, notching 16 wins, 169 K and a 3.49 ERA. He pitches like a seasoned veteran, but he’s only 25 . . . Newcomer TREVOR CAHILL was 6-1 with a
1.79 ERA in his first 10 starts before finishing 6-13 with a 5.25 ERA. Don’t expect a huge
comeback going from a pitcher’s park to a
hitter’s park . . . The Diamondbacks brought back innings eater JOE SAUNDERS, which closed the door for stud prospect WADE MILEY to begin 2012 in Arizona’s starting rotation. Once the first-round draft pick from 2008 cuts down on his walks, everything else should fall into place, and he should be pitching for the big club come September
. . . JOSH COLLMENTER burst on the scene with his crazy delivery and was unhittable in his first six starts (1.05 ERA, 0.76 WHIP). He predictably tailed off, but still led the rotation with a 1.07 WHIP, walking just 28 batters in 154.1 innings.
RELIEF PITCHING
Arizona led the majors with 58 saves, as J.J. PUTZ tallied 45 of those. He didn’t allow a run in his final 18 appearances, finishing with a 2.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 9.5 K per 9 IP. He was unhittable on the road, giving up just one run on nine hits in 24.1 innings (.113 opp. BA) . . . Putz does have a history of being injured, and if he gets hurt again, DAVID HERNANDEZ proved a worthy replacement, saving 11 games last year and posting a strong 10.0 K per 9 IP rate. He held opponents to a meager .193 BA . . . BRAD ZIEGLER was even better after Arizona acquired him at the deadline. In 23 appearances with the D-backs, the side-arming Ziegler notched a 1.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
COLORADO ROCKIES
2011 record: 73-89 (.451), -29.5 Units
Odds to Win National League West: 9/2
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 15/1
Odds to Win World Series: 35/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 81.5
HITTING
This offense still has trouble scoring outside of Coors Field, posting the second-fewest road runs in the majors (3.65 per game) . . .SS TROY TULOWITZKI doesn’t need the thin air though, posting an .881 OPS on the road. He led Colorado with a .302 BA, 30 HR, 105 RBI. . . OF CARLOS GONZALEZ was bothered by wrist and back injuries last year, but still managed to smack 26 homers with 92 RBI and 92 runs . . . OF DEXTER FOWLER will bat first or second after a strong .363 OBP. He could score 100 runs if he improved his base stealing (12 SB, 9 CS) . . . OF MICHAEL CUDDYER gets the Coors Field Bump, while TYLER COLVIN settles into the 4th-OF role . . . Colorado has question marks with its corner infielders. 1B TODD HELTON is 38 with a bad back, and mediocre 3B CHRIS NELSON will start until top prospect NOLAN ARENADO is ready for the big leagues . . . 2B MARCO SCUTARO carries a louder stick than most two-baggers and C RAMON HERNANDEZ (.788 OPS) is an upgrade over the departed Chris Iannetta.
STARTING PITCHING
There are plenty of question marks in Colorado’s rotation with Ubaldo Jimenez pitching in the AL and two of its top three starters coming off major injuries . . . JORGE DE LA ROSA had Tommy John surgery and won’t likely return to a big-league mound until June. De La Rosa had a 1.19 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in 59 innings before his injury . . . JHOULYS CHACIN will
be counted on as the rotation’s ace and he certainly has the physical tools and array of pitches to live up to this billing if he can trim his 87 walks in 194 innings . . . Former Baltimore “ace” JEREMY GUTRHIE threw for 200+ innings in each of his past three seasons, but he’s also served up 86 gopher balls in this span. That’s not a good sign of things to come in the thin air . . . JUAN NICASIO took a line drive off the head and broke his C-1 vertebrae in August, but the team amazingly expects him to ready when the season begins. The 25-year-old has great command for such a young hurler . . . GUILLERMO MOSCOCO fared pretty well as a starter with the A’s last year (.209 Opp. BA), but his 4.70 road ERA nearly doubled his 2.42 ERA in Oakland . . . Lefty DREW POMERANZ, 23, has a wealthy array of pitches and performed admirably in three of his four starts after being called up last season.
RELIEF PITCHING
Although he was the team’s main set-up man last year, RAFAEL BETANCOURT becomes the Rockies closer with Huston Street out of the picture. After struggling at Coors Field in 2010 (4.99 ERA, 7 HR), he thrived in the thin air last year with a 1.93 ERA, and just 1 HR allowed in 32.2 innings. But he turns 37 in April and is one of the riskier saves men with little closing experience in his career . . . MATT BELISLE figures to be next in line for saves, notching 70 K and 16 BB at Coors Field since 2010 . . . MATT REYNOLDS is the top lefty in the pen, but his 2011 season was nothing to write home about (4.09 ERA, 10 HR allowed in 50.2 IP).
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
2011 record: 82-79 (.509), +0.8 Units
Odds to Win National League West: 7/1
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 17/1
Odds to Win World Series: 40/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 81.5
HITTING
The Dodgers were ravaged with injuries in 2010 and finished in the bottom third in the majors in runs (4.00 per game), homers (117) and OPS (.697) . . . None of these poor numbers were the fault of OF MATT KEMP, who finished second in MVP voting with a .324 BA, 39 HR, 126 RBI and 40 steals. He says he wants a 50-50 season in 2012 . . . 1B JAMES LONEY had the second-most homers (12) of any returning player, and batted .357 with a .608 SLG after August 1 . . . If speedy SS DEE GORDON learns to be more patient at the plate (7 BB in 224 AB), he could score 90 runs from the top of the order . . . OF ANDRE ETHIER made headlines with a 30-game hit streak, but was once again dominated by lefties (.563 OPS) . . . The team is counting on two veterans to drive in runs. 3B JUAN URIBE has been a walking infirmary lately, but still has 15-HR power, and OF JUAN RIVERA had 46 RBI in 219 AB after coming to the Dodgers . . . Two guys named Ellis, 2B MARK ELLIS and C A.J. ELLIS, will bat at the bottom of the order.
STARTING PITCHING
The Dodgers remain one of the better rotations in baseball, placing third in the majors in ERA (3.41) and fourth in opponents’ BA (.242) . . . The biggest reason for the success was the NL Cy Young and Triple Crown-winning performance of CLAYTON KERSHAW, who tied for the NL lead in wins (21) and topped all NL pitchers in ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248) . . . Fellow southpaw TED LILLY had a down year overall (12-14, 3.97 ERA), but had a fantastic final two months of the season (2.09 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) . . . CHAD BILLINGSLEY notched his fifth straight season of double-digit wins, despite sporting a mediocre 4.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP . . . AARON HARANG signed a two-year, $12M deal to join the Dodgers rotation. He won 14 games for the lowly Padres last year and finished with a career-best 3.64 ERA . . . CHRIS CAPUANO left the Mets for richer pastures (2-yr, $10M) of Los Angeles. Although he pitched well at spacious Citi Field (3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), he was terrible on the road (5.42 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).
RELIEF PITCHING
Jonathan Broxton is gone, ending any kind of closer controversy the Dodgers may have been trying to avoid. JAVY GUERRA is the closer, and for good reason. He converted 21-of-23 ave chances while posting a 2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and allowing just two homers in 46.2 innings . . . If Guerra falters, manager Don Mattingly can afford to have a short leash with KENLEY JANSEN as his set-up man. Jansen led the majors with an insane 16.1 K-per-9 ratio and limited opponents to a .159 BA and .228 slugging percentage. At age 24, his upside is extremely high . . . MATT GUERRIER is a usually reliable reliever, but he is coming off a subpar 2011 campaign (4.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).
SAN DIEGO PADRES
2011 record: 71-91 (.438), -12.2 Units
Odds to Win National League West: 15/1
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 125/1
Odds to Win World Series: 100/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 74
HITTING
This was by far the worst lineup in the National League in runs (3.66 per game), HR (91), and OPS (.653) . . . 1B JESUS GUZMAN had 44 RBI in just 247 at-bats thanks to a 1.094 OPS with RISP. 1B YONDER ALONSO, the key piece of the Mat Latos trade, will play first every day, moving Guzman to a back-up role . . . OF CAMERON MAYBIN used his speed to steal 40 bases and score 82 runs . . . OF CARLOS QUENTIN was acquired from the White Sox and will provide much-needed power in the middle of the batting order when he returns to the field sometime in late April/early May after having knee surgery. Slugger KYLE BLANKS will fill the void. In 420 career at-bats, he has 20 homers, but also has a .219 BA and 152 strikeouts . . . SS JASON BARTLETT had a disappointing first season in San Diego, hitting only two home runs in 554 at-bats and posting a pathetic .615 OPS as the team’s No. 2 hitter in the lineup . . . Mediocre OF WILL VENABLE (.705 OPS) would not start for any other team in the majors . . . 3B CHASE HEADLEY batted .289 with a .374 OBP, but failed to provide any power from the three-hole . . . Oft-injured C NICK HUNDLEY had an .824 OPS and 9 HR in half a season . . . SS ORLANDO HUDSON batted just .246 with 92 strikeouts and just 31 walks.
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This young staff finished sixth in the majors with a 3.62 ERA . . . TIM STAUFFER struggled to pitch outside of spacious Petco Park, posting a 4.95 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road (2.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP at home) . . . Two starters both underwent surgery on their throwing shoulders last summer, but are expected to be ready for the start of the season. Lefty CLAYTON RICHARD had just 53 K and 38 BB in 99.2 innings, but he posted a strong 2.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home last year . . . The 2011 campaign was the year to judge whether EDINSON VOLQUEZ was all the way back from major arm surgery. Well, the jury’s in and the verdict isn’t kind. The move to San Diego can only cure so much . . . Right-hander DUSTIN MOSELEY enjoyed his first season in the NL, posting career-best marks in ERA (3.30) and WHIP (1.28). But like Richard,
his 64 K and 36 BB in 120 innings were unimpressive . . . CORY LUEBKE began 2011 in
the bullpen, but was moved the rotation, which is where he’ll stay in 2012. In 17
starts last year, he shined with a 3.31 ERA and 111 K in 100.2 IP.
RELIEF PITCHING
For the first time since 2008, somebody other than Heath Bell will close games for the Padres. HUSTON STREET will certainly benefit from the move to hitter haven Coors Field to pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Street had a 4.20 home ERA in three seasons in Colorado, while posting a stellar 2.59 ERA on the road . . . If Street gets hurt, the two leading candidates for the closer role are LUKE GREGERSON and ERNESTO FRIERI. Gregerson is the more consistent pitcher of the two, but Frieri throws harder than Gregerson and has a stellar 11.1 strikeout rate in his three-year career.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2011 record: 86-76 (.531), -5.4 Units
Odds to Win National League West: 7/5
Odds to Win National League Pennant: 13/2
Odds to Win World Series: 16/1
Over/Under Regular Season Wins: 87
HITTING
The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the majors. But the additions of OF MELKY CABRERA (.305 BA, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 102 runs) and OF ANGEL PAGAN (32 SB) at the top of the order will certainly help . . . C BUSTER POSEY’s surgically repaired ankle should be fully healed for the start of the seaosn, and the 25-year-old’s .368 OBP is certainly needed . . . 3B PABLO SANDOVAL was the team’s best hitter in 2011 (.315 BA, 23 HR, 70 RBI) and was the only legitimate power source . . . The right side of the infield consists of veteran players past their prime. 1B AUBREY HUFF had his worst season, hitting .246 with 12 HR, but the 35-year-old will continue to bat in the middle of the lineup . . . 2B FREDDY SANCHEZ, 34, missed 50+ games for the third straight year as he suffered a torn labrum . . . SS BRANDON CRAWFORD has a slick glove but he’s not close to being a legitimate major-league hitter (.204 career BA) . . . OF BRANDON BELT, 23, has future star potential, but will be in a reserve role . . . OF NATE SCHIERHOLTZ (.756 OPS) provides a reliable bat in right field.
STARTING PITCHING
San Francisco ranked second in the majors in ERA (3.28), strikeouts (5.4 per game) and Opp. BA (.237). TIM LINCECUM was the ace once again with a 2.74 ERA and 220 strikeouts, but carried a sub-.500 record (13-14). Including playoffs, Lincecum has thrown an average of 230 innings per season since 2008 . . . MATT CAIN also had a phenomenal year, carting a 2.88 ERA, team-best 1.08 WHIP and fanning 179 batters. He allowed only nine home runs in 221.2 innings of work . . . 22-year-old lefty MADISON BUMGARNER had a solid first full season, finishing with a 3.21 ERA, and a 4.2 K-to-BB ratio (191 strikeouts, 46 walks) . . . RYAN VOGELSONG was an unbelievable story, returning to the majors for the first time since 2006 and going 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA. Although he’s 34, his arm has plenty of innings left . . . BARRY ZITO will likely earn the final spot in the rotation as prospect ERIC SURKAMP gets more seasoning in Triple-A. Zito posted a career-worst 5.87 ERA while Surkamp carted a 1.84 WHIP in six starts.
RELIEF PITCHING
The success of the San Francisco bullpen hinges on BRIAN WILSON, who had a down year (1.47 WHIP, 54 K, 31 BB) because of elbow problems. Surgery was not required for his ailment, so expect a nice bounce-back season from this elite closer . . . If Wilson gets injured again, SERGIO ROMO could get called upon in the late innings. But even if he doesn’t save a game, he still has plenty of value as a set-up man, notching a gaudy 13.1 strikeout rate and 0.71 WHIP last year. In 48 innings, he struck out 70 batters and only walked five . . . JEREMY AFFELDT is the top lefty in the Giants pen. He notched a strong 2.63 ERA and also tallied a career-best 1.15 WHIP last year.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
