Cubs vs. Pirates Betting Line – August 3
Carrie Stroup here with your Cubs vs. Pirates betting line for August 3. Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -137, Chicago +127, Total: 6.5
CHICAGO CUBS (57-47) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (61-43)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -137, Chicago +127, Total: 6.5
It has been an outstanding campaign for the Cubs in 2015 as they currently remain in the second wildcard spot while being tied with the Giants. The young club has some of the more exciting and talented players in the game and that has led the Cubs to victories in six of their last seven games; including each of the last five. Most of those were in Milwaukee where they swept the Brewers over four games, giving up eight runs in all and capped it off with a close 4-3 win on Sunday afternoon when the offense was a mere 2-for-11 with RISP, but did enough to back a nice outing (6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3K) from starter Clayton Richard. His four-game hitting streak may have ended on Sunday, but 1B Anthony Rizzo (.286) is 8-for-19 (.421) with four homers, 10 RBIs and five runs during the current winning streak.
Since the Pirates have decided to start keeping their young stars, they have begun to win and remain competitive in the tough NL Central while currently owning the top wildcard spot. They’ve also been playing some solid baseball of late, going 7-3 in their last 10-game stretch and will be returning home for just the second series since the All-Star break. They were able to earn a split on the road against the Reds on Sunday afternoon, riding the stellar effort (7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 7 K) by Charlie Morton in a 3-0 victory. OF Starling Marte (.288) has helped in making this OF one of the best in the league and has at least one hit in nine of the last 10 games; driving in six runs during that time.
A couple of veteran lefties will battle it out in this divisional matchup with LHP Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA) of Chicago going against LHP Francisco Liriano (7-6, 2.92 ERA) of the host group. One reason that the Cubs have been so successful this year is their ability to play well on the road where they are 30-23 (.566) as they take on this Pittsburgh crew which is a solid 35-17 (.673) at home. The series between these teams since the start of 2013 hasn’t been all too close with the Pirates holding a 30-18 (.625) edge overall while taking 16-of-24 contests at home during that stretch. The last time the clubs played against each other this year in Pittsburgh was back in April, and Chicago managed a split over four games, outscoring the Pirates 21-19.
Some trends to keep an eye on include that the Cubs are 14-5 (.737) in games with a total of seven or less this year while being a meager 17-39 (.304) after having won five or six of their last seven games going back three years. Chicago will be keeping an eye on 3B Kris Bryant who left Sunday’s game with dizziness after a slide and they will also be playing without C Miguel Montero (Thumb) who is on the DL. On the other side of the diamond, Pittsburgh has 3B Josh Harrison (Thumb) and SS Jody Mercer (Knee) still missing from the active roster.
After a career year in 2014, Lester has reverted back to his usual stuff, which while still better than most other starters in the league, is certainly not the greatness of last year (16-11, 2.46 ERA). He has kept his strikeouts up (9.2 K/9) and has some of the best control (2.2 BB/9) as he keeps the ball in park (0.75 HR/9). Most would think that lefties have more trouble against him, but on the year they are hitting .269 over 126 batters faced compared to the .233 mark right-handed batters have posted in their 419 plate appearances. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his last six outings, throwing five quality starts with a 50:5 K/BB ratio over 43.1 frames.
Lester has done well in his limited time against the Pirates and is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA (1.46 WHIP) while getting the one win this year in a nice outing (7 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 7 K). The only players on Pittsburgh who have any sort of success against the lefty are 3B Aramis Ramirez (3-for-7) and C Chris Stewart (3-for-7) as superstar OF Andrew McCutchen is hitless in six at-bats during the matchup.
The relievers for Chicago have gone 24-18 with a 3.38 ERA (1.26 WHIP) and are 28-for-43 (65%) in save chances. Hector Rondon (1.88 ERA, 16 saves) has been reinserted as the closer, converting each of the last four save opportunities and 16-of-19 (84%) on the year.
Liriano may not be considered an ace by many, but he is looking to post an ERA south of 3.40 for the third consecutive season as he is striking out more batters (10.0 K/9) than he has since 2006. His control (3.0 BB/9) is also near a career-best as he gives up a respectable 0.71 HR/9. Despite batters hitting a poor .265 BABIP against him, his ERA seems very sustainable with a FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) of 2.94 as he is getting the opposition to hit it on the ground 53.7% of the time. Unlike his counterpart in this one, Liriano and his nasty slider have dominated left-handers to the tune of a .185 average over 114 batters faced in 2015. He’s currently riding a six-game quality start streak dating back to June 26th and his team has been able to win each of those contests with Liriano going 3-0.
The 31-year-old has had plenty of experience against the Cubs in his career, going 4-2 (6-4 team record) with a 2.56 ERA (1.02 WHIP), but did lose in his one start (5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 9 K) this year. The players on Chicago’s roster have combined to go a putrid 12-for-86 (.140) with 33 strikeouts against the lefty as both 1B Anthony Rizzo (4-for-20, 7 K) and SS Starlin Castro (3-for-22, 7 K) have really struggled in the matchup.
The Pirates bullpen has gone 16-13 with a 2.86 ERA (1.22 WHIP) and are a solid 36-for-46 (78%) in their saves. Mark Melancon (1.29 ERA, 33 saves) leads the league in saves and has not blown one since April 21st as he benefits from a .252 BABIP mark from the opposition.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
