Guardians-Phillies Game 1 Total Drops From 8.5 to 8

• The Guardians-Phillies series will take place in a ball park that currently ranks 5th for home runs.
• The total has dropped from 8.5 to 8 and there could be good reason for this.

Guardians vs. Phillies

Be forewarned, Citizens Bank Park gives up the 5th most home runs and starting pitcher Ben Lively (8-6, 3.57 ERA) has given up 15 home runs in 93.1 innings of work so far this season.

Lively, however, has not had a win over his last three starts and we anticipate he will be at his best in this game. Cristopher Sanchez comes into this game with a 7-5 record with a 2.97 ERA. He's only allowed three home runs this season.

Sanchez in his last start allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings and took the loss against the Pirates on Saturday.  He permitted just two runs in six frames his prior start.

As far as the total goes, the last time these two teams met in Philly was way back in 2016 where each of those three games stayed Under the total.  Eight of Cleveland's last ten games have seen the total stay Under while half of the Phillies last ten have resulted in eight or fewer runs.

Three of the last five games Lively has started in have resulted in three or fewer runs being scored and he is capable of pitching 6 innings.

Four of the last five games Sanchez has started have resulted in eight or fewer runs being scored.

With a total of 8, the Under is fascinating.  Indeed, a review of AcePerhead.com internal data early on suggests that there is a strong inclination to bet the Under when the number was set at 8.5.

Why It Matters

The industry has changed considerably in recent years courtesy of constantly improving technology.. This calls for a special type of skill, some oddsmakers were left behind simply because they could not adapt fast enough to the changes.  AcePerHead.com oddsmakers are more than capable of employing such skills.

The total has moved from 8.5 to 8.  Over bettors tend to be more plentiful.  With these two clubs employing terrific offense so far this season, the average gambler will be inclined, and even more encouraged, to bet the Over with the number coming down.  Think like a bookmaker and jump on the Under here.

Twins vs. Tigers

Detroit is scoring 5.3 runs per game in July, outscoring their opponents by 1.2 runs on average.

Pablo Lopez is 8-7 with a 4.86 ERA for the Twins.  He's allowed just one homer and 8 RBIs in 64 at bats versus this Detroit roster.  Mark Canha has gone 5-for-10 against him but is just .232 on the season.

Detroit will start Keider Montero.  He's 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA. 

The Tigers could be in serious flux in the coming days as Tarik Skubal's future with the team remains uncertain.

Alden Gonzalez of ESPN writes:

"The Tigers stand among the most intriguing teams ahead of next week's trade deadline, for two clear reasons: Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal. Flaherty, signed to a one-year contract over the offseason, will undoubtedly be dealt, making him one of the most coveted arms on the market. The question, though, is Skubal. The Tigers might not be in contention this year, but they see themselves as contenders next year. Skubal, currently the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award, would be a huge part of those plans, given that he's under team control through 2026. But the Tigers can also get a lot for him. We shall see if this dealers market tempts them."