MLB Betting Analysis - August 9 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Saturday August 9, 2025.
August 9, 2025
Moneyline action was mostly balanced with the line having moved from Royals +108 to -125 and the total dropping from 9 to 8.5. Action was greater than 65% on the Over.
PITCHING PROBABLES: Royals: Noah Cameron (5-5, 2.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 72 strikeouts); Twins: Bailey Ober (4-6, 5.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 78 strikeouts)
Cameron allowed four runs with one strikeout over 6 1/3 innings in a loss against the Blue Jays on Saturday but had a victory in his prior start.
While the sampling is small, the Twins have only one hit in 12 at bars vs. Cameron.
The Kansas City Royals career statistics vs. Ober are .302 (35 hits in 116 at bats).
The Royals have 20 RBIs vs. Ober Vinnie Pasquantino is 5 for 16 against him but, interestingly, without any RBIs.
Bobby Witt Jr. is 12 for 25 against him with five RBIs and a home run. Witt has 37 doubles, four triples and 17 home runs for the Royals and is currently among that team's top performers.
Maikel Garcia is 12 for 39 with three doubles, a home run and five RBI over the last 10 games but is just 1 for 12 against Ober.
Ober surrendered four runs in five innings Saturday in a no-decision against the Guardians.
Take the Under 8.5 in the Royals-Twins game
Pay Per Head MLB Offerings This Day
These are your MLB betting software options for Thursday's games.
MLB - GAME LINES
MLB - 1ST 5 FULL INNINGS
MLB - 3 INNINGS LINE
MLB - 7 INNINGS LINE
MLB - 1ST 5 INN WINNER (3-WAY)
MLB - 1ST INNING WINNER (3 WAY)
MLB - TEAM TOTALS
MLB - 1ST HALF TEAM TOTALS
MLB - ALTERNATE RUNLINES & TOTALS
MLB - TEAM WITH THE HIGHEST SCORING INNING
MLB - DOUBLE RESULT
MLB - WINNING MARGIN
MLB - HOME RUN MARKET
MLB - SCORE 1ST INNING
MLB - INNINGS PROPS
MLB - 1ST INNING EXACT HITS
MLB - 1ST PLATE APPEARANCE - EXACT RESULT
MLB - PLAYER TO HIT A HOME RUN
MLB - TEAM TO SCORE 1ST
MLB - TEAM TO SCORE FIRST WINS THE GAME
MLB - TOTAL HITS
MLB - TOTAL RUNS ODD/EVEN
MLB - SERIES PRICES
MLB - HITS +RUNS +ERRORS
MLB - PITCHER STRIKEOUTS
MLB - PITCHER TOTAL OUTS
MLB - PITCHER WALKS ALLOWED
MLB - PITCHER HITS ALLOWED
MLB - TOTAL BASES
MLB - 2025 MLB WORLD SERIES WINNER
MLB - 2025 NATIONAL LEAGUE WINNER
MLB - 2025 AMERICAN LEAGUE WINNER
MLB - 2025 DIVISION WINNER
MLB - TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
August 8, 2025
With 69% of the action on Toronto, it's easy to see why the Dodgers line has moved from -152 to -129.
PITCHING PROBABLES: Blue Jays: Max Scherzer (2-1, 4.39 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 44 strikeouts); Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 3.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 42 strikeouts)
ESPN observed:
For the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are averaging the second-most runs per game. However, avoiding opposing pitchers for the past month meant not facing the team averaging the seventh-fewest runs per game in the league over that stretch. The defending World Series champions can snap out of their rut at any time, so there is risk. That said, veteran Max Scherzer is finding his groove with two straight quality starts, featuring 15 strikeouts with no walks over 13 frames. On Friday's pitching rankings, Scherzer checks in as the top-ranked streamer when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers career statistics vs. Max Scherzer are just .222 in 171 at bats. Freddie Freeman has just four RBIs in 53 at bats and Shohei Ohtani is 0-for-5.
Toronto Blue Jays career statistics vs. Clayton Kershaw are just .186.
The total on the Reds-Pirates game moved off the 8 to 7.5.
We are seeing a lot of top cappers on the Under and the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds career statistics vs. Mitch Keller are .263. They only have two homers against him in 118 at bats.
Keller won despite giving up five runs over five-plus innings Sunday against the Rockies.
Six of the last eight in this series have stayed Under the total while none of the last eight resulted in more than eight runs.
Phillies vs. Rangers
What We Like
- Cristopher Sanchez has been a problem for opposing lineups all season, and when I saw he was starting, my initial reaction was to expect a lower-scoring game. He has held lefties to a .160 batting average and .443 OPS this season. (The Action Network)
- Merrill Kelly has allowed two runs or fewer in his last three starts against the Phillies. (The Action Network)
- Philadelphia Phillies career statistics vs. Merrill Kelly are just .235 in 132 at bats with 5 home runs.
- Nick Castellanos is just 1-for-11 versus Kelly.
- There was heavy action on the Under, even at 7. The oddsmakers reacted to this lopsided action.
- Three of the last four games in this series have seen 7 or fewer runs scored.
- Some top cappers we like are on the Under here (though at 7.5).
August 7, 2025
There is a limited slate today but the Marlins vs. Braves total caught our eye. This one opened at 9 at some books and has since dropped to 8.5 with as much as 81 percent of the action on the Over. Eight of the last ten in this series have stayed Under this number.
Perez pitched two-hit ball for six innings in the Marlins’ shutout of the Yankees on Saturday. He allowed just one run in a no-decision in his prior start.
While it is a limited sampling of just 20 at bats, the Braves career statistics vs. Eury Perez are .350 and Marcell Ozuna has three RBIs against Perez in three at bats.
Carrasco posted a quality start in a no-decision against the Reds in his Braves’ debut on Thursday, surrendering three runs on seven hits over his six innings of work.
Continue to monitor as the Under is looking intriguing here.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (37-27-2)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 ()
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
