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Carrie Stroup here with your Pirates vs. Cardinals betting line for August 11.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (65-44) at ST LOUIS CARDINALS (71-40)
Sportsbook.ag Line: St. Louis -140, Pittsburgh +130, Total: 7
The Pittsburgh Pirates look to make a dent in the NL Central lead held by the St. Louis Cardinals when they head to Missouri to begin a three-game set on Tuesday night.
Pittsburgh is making things interesting in the NL Central as the season inches closer to a finish and now sits five games behind the Cardinals after winning 11 of the last 15 games. They defeated two teams, the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers, who look to be headed to the playoffs in 6-of-7 attempts and most recently swept the aforementioned Dodgers over three contests. They outscored them 24-15 and capped it off with a big 13-6 victory on Sunday night, getting 16 hits and going 6-for-14 with RISP in the process. OF Andrew McCutchen (.301) is putting together yet another spectacular campaign and is 9-for-16 (.563) with two doubles, two homers, eight RBIs and seven runs in his last five games.
The Pirates will have a tough time catching up with St. Louis, though, as the perennial visitors to the playoffs own the league’s best record and come into this divisional matchup with a record of 15-7 since the All-Star break. They will be returning home following a six-game road trip in which they went 4-2 and earned a shutout in three of the wins. Two of those come in the most recent series against the Brewers, but they failed to finish the sweep with a close 5-4 loss on Sunday as the bullpen blew the lead in the eighth inning. OF Stephen Piscotty (.328) should be looking forward to heading back home as he is 12-for-27 (.444) with three doubles and five RBIs this season in front of the hometown fans.
Getting the call for Pittsburgh in this matchup will be LHP Jeff Locke (6-6, 4.31 ERA) as he takes on the young “ace” in RHP Carlos Martinez (11-4, 2.57 ERA) of the Cardinals. The Pirates have actually split their 52 games (26-26) when playing on the road in 2015, but will have a very tough task ahead against this St. Louis group which is an impressive 40-16 at home. The battle between these two teams has certainly tightened over the past few years and since the start of 2013, the Cardinals hold a slight 28-25 edge over Pittsburgh, but have dominated at Busch Stadium to the tune of a 19-6 record in that time. This year they have already met on 10 occasions and have split (5-5) the series with St. Louis again excelling (3-0) at home.
Some trends to watch include that the Pirates are 39-9 (.813) after two or more consecutive games at home this year as the Cardinals have gone 16-2 (.889) after a one run loss on the season. The injury report has a lot of depth missing for Pittsburgh with 3B Josh Harrison (Thumb) being the only significant omission from the lineup as St. Louis continues to play without 1B Matt Adams (Quad), OF Matt Holliday (Quad) and OF Jon Jay (Wrist).
Locke has been a fixture in the Pirates’ rotation for three years now and despite not being elite in anything, he has managed to post some solid numbers. As far as his ERA is concerned, this is the worst year he is having with at least 20 starts, but his FIP (fielder independent pitching) mark is at a career-best 3.91. His strikeouts (7.0 K/9) won’t blow anybody away as he struggles with control (3.4 BB/9) and he has left a mediocre 68.2% of runners on base. What he does do well is get the opposition to hit it on the ground which he has accomplished 51.1% of the time and that has helped limit the homers (0.76 HR/9). His team has won during each of his last three outings despite him not being able to get out of the sixth inning, totaling 15.2 frames with 11 runs allowed on 13 hits as he struck out 14 (7 walks).
Locke has pitched fairly well against the Cardinals in seven career starts, going 2-3 (4-3 team record) with a 3.55 ERA (1.45 WHIP) and was unlucky with three of his four runs allowed against them in their last meeting being unearned. OFs Jayson Heyward (5-for-16, 2 RBI) and Peter Bourjos (3-for-7, 1 RBI) have seen the ball well out of the lefties hand, but the likes of SS Jhonny Peralta and 1B Mark Reynolds are a pitiful 1-for-24 with eight strikeouts in the matchup.
The bullpen for the Pirates has been solid, going 20-13 with a 2.78 ERA (1.24 WHIP) and has saved 38-of-49 (78%) games. Mark Melancon (1.56 ERA, 35 saves) has just one blown save on the year while getting batters to hit it on the ground an astounding 61.7% of the time and leaving 86.5% of runners on base.
Martinez is yet another polished superstar to come out of the St. Louis system and the 23-year-old has taken his game to a new level in 2015 as he ranks in the top-eight of the NL with 11 wins (5th in NL), 51 walks (2nd in NL) and a 2.57 ERA (8th in NL). In his first full season as a starter, Martinez has managed to strikeout more batters (9.1 K/9) than he did as a reliever in the past two years while having similar control (3.6 BB/9). He has allowed more homers (0.77 HR/9) though, but is able to limit the damage as he keeps 83.6% of runners on base. Martinez has the nice combination of both being able to get the opponent out via swings and misses while also keeping it on the ground (55.4% GB). He has now allowed one or fewer runs in seven of his last 10 outings and since the beginning of June has given up a mere 20 runs (16 ER) over 69 innings (2.09 ERA).
The youngster has not done well against the Pirates overall in his career, going 1-1 (2-1 team record) with a 5.31 ERA (1.45 WHIP), but was spectacular (7.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 8 K) when they last met in early July. Not many have hit Martinez well, but 2B Neil Walker (4-for-13, 2 HR, 4 RBI) has been huge in the matchup as 3B Pedro Alvarez and OF Starling Marte are a combined 1-for-18 (.056) with eight strikeouts against the righty.
St. Louis owns arguably the best bullpen in baseball as they’ve gone 20-14 with a 2.26 ERA (1.24 WHIP) and have been successful at saving 45-of-57 (79%) contests. Trevor Rosenthal (1.57 ERA, 33 saves) has two blown saves on the year (94%) and has mowed down 9.9 batters per nine innings while allowing just one HR in his 51.2 frames (0.17 HR/9).
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
