Strategy for Daily Fantasy Baseball – Looking at Betting Totals
A great strategy to employ for daily fantasy Baseball is to consider totals set by online bookmakers. High totals in a particular game mean the oddsmakers – who are good at what they do – believe there will be plenty of scoring.
This ups the chances for certain hitters to bump their stats up and hopefully tally up some good fantasy points.
Pay close attention to MLB players who have excelled against a particular starting pitcher in the past and especially those in the midst of a hot hitting streak.
For argument’s sake, Gambling911.com prefers totals set at 8.5 or greater. Games with this high a total tend to end with scores of at least 5 or more runs.
April 22 –
Today we have three games with totals set at 8.5 or higher.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays – PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RHP Aaron Sanchez (0-2, 6.23 ERA)
With Baltimore and Jimenez there are no batters on the current Blue Jays roster who have hit especially well against the Orioles right-hander. In fact, Jimenez has only allowed a total of 29 hits off of 164 at bats.
Chris Davis (Baltimore) - priced at $3600 has performed especially well versus Sanchez, hitting 3-for-3. Sanchez has only limited action against the current Baltimore roster.
Padres vs. Rockies – PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres RH James Shields (2-0, 2.84 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Kyle Kendrick (1-2, 7.56)
A good rule of thumb is to almost always consider games played in Colorado first and foremost when selecting your daily fantasy roster. This is, after all, a hitters paradise in Major League Baseball. An added enticement is that the Rockies appear to be an improved team this season.
Three Rockies players have hit especially well versus Shields in the past. A few others have had mild success against him.
Nolan Arenado (Colorado) was a late scratch Tuesday night due to a sore wrist. He might be a risky play Wednesday but, if slated to start, Arenado should definitely be in play. He has hit 4-for-5 versus Shields with one homerun. Arenado is worth the $4700 price tag here provided he’s healthy.
Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado) – 5-for-9 with two homers against Shields.
Justin Morneau (Colorado) – He is 15-for-47 against Shields with four homeruns. He’s had 11 RBIs over that time period. He’s priced at $4000.
Justin Upton (San Diego) – He’s 8-for-23 versus Kendrick with two home runs. He has hit 7-for-21 at bats with 4 runs scored over the past seven days. His price of $4500 has some value.
Alexi Amarista (San Diego) – With 13 at bats over the past seven days, Amarati has hit three and scored two. More importantly, he’s 2-for-7 against Kendrick with one home run scored. There were 3 RBIs. PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers RH Yovani Rangers vs. Diamondbacks – PITCHING MATCHUP: Gallardo (2-1, 3.45 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Archie Bradley (1-0, 1.42)
Gallardo has thoroughly dominated the Diamondbacks at Chase Field throughout his career, going 5-0 with a 1.93 ERA in six outings.
Bradley has allowed only three hits to the 32 left-handed hitters he has faced while striking out nine. It is hard to fathom why the total in this game would be trending towards 9 after opening at 8.5.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
