2011 Sweet 16 Predictions
Gambling911.com is happy to provide its readers with some important 2011 Sweet 16 predictions based on line calculations vs. actual published odds as well as various trends.
BYU vs. Florida State – While it is true BYU is missing one of its top players, this hasn’t stopped the Cougars from advancing this far – and in dominating fashion we might add. They are the +3 underdog and Gambling911.com has determined they should actually be the -3 favorite in this game. BYU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Unfortunately they haven’t played very well in tournaments up to this point Against The Spread. BYU is 5-14 ATS in that regard. The Cougars have beaten and covered the point spread against Florida in their one head-to-head over the past three seasons. The first of our 2011 Sweet 16 predictions: BYU +3 at Sportsbook.com(claim your FREE CASH by using bonus code: GAMBLING911)
Butler vs. Wisconsin – This line opened at -4 in favor of Wisconsin, it has since moved up to -5 and is attracting even action on the spread. Gambling911.com has calculated that Wisconsin should be a -7 favorite in this game. With that being said, check out these trends that favor Butler winning here: The Bulldogs are 7-0 Against The Spread when playing on a neutral court this season, 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season, 7-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, 15-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS vs. good defensive teams allowing less than 64 points/game this season. Butler should cover the +5 points here though for a much smaller play.
UConn vs. San Diego State – The line may have opened at even in this game but Gambling911.com believes the Aztecs should have been favored by -2.5 points. Connecticut was now a -1 point favorite. This season, the Aztecs have gone 11-4 ATS in non-conference games, are 15-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and 8-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. UConn is 10-0 ATS on a neutral court, 7-0 ATS in non-conference games and 10-0 ATS in all tournament games this season. They are also 8-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. We give San Diego State the slight edge here at +1
Kentucky vs. Ohio State – The line was -5.5 in favor of the Buckeyes here and Gambling911.com believed that number should be closer to -7. We just want to note that nearly 95 percent of the spread action is on Ohio State in this game yet the line has only moved up a half a point. We do believe the gambling public will take the books to the cleaners here and, with that, our prediction is for an Ohio State win on the -5.5 line.
Arizona vs. Duke – The Blue Devils should only be a -7 point favorite here, yet oddsmakers released this one at -9.5, dropping the line to -8.5. Arizona was still getting a ton of action on that spread. We do like Arizona at +8.5 for a small play.
Marquette vs. North Carolina – The line on this game was -4.5 after opening at -5 in favor of UNC. Gambling911.com had the line opening at -4 so we believe there is still a small overlay that would favor Marquette here. More importantly perhaps is that there are quite a few trends favoring Marquette. They are 17-5 ATS as underdogs over the last two seasons, 14-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, and 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. One of our favorite 2011 Sweet 16 predictions is Marquette at +4.5.
Richmond vs. Kansas – The line here had the Jayhawks at -10.5 and it hasn’t moved much. We should see the price on this game stay steady since action is relatively balanced. There is, however, an overlay of 1.5 points according to Gambling911.com’s determinations and trends strongly favor a cover by Richmond here. They are 21-12 Against The Spread in all games this season, 15-4 ATS as an underdog, 7-1 ATS on neutral courts, 12-5 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season, 28-14 ATS playing a team with a winning record over the past two seasons and 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. We really like Richmond to cover the +10.5 points here.
VCU vs. Florida State – The Seminoles were -3.5 favorites and we believe this line to be fairly accurate. Virginia Commonwealth is an impressive 7-0 ATS in all tournament games since 1997. We do not have a prediction on this game as there is too little info for us to make a pick.
As you might have noticed, we anticipate more upsets with 6 of our 7 predictions underdog plays. Good luck to all!
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
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